Weight is assigned to horses in each race in order to handicap each one according to its age and performance, or so the theory goes. There are many people who wonder if a few pounds one way or the other really matters to a thousand pound thoroughbred. Of course it matters, but the question is, how much will it affect the runner's speed and finish?
Let's look at a hypothetical situation of a one mile race for three year old fillies. One filly who fits the conditions of the race to a tee has the lowest assigned weight of 118 pounds. The rest of the field are carrying 122 pounds. In hr last race the low weight filly faced many of these same races and they were all carrying the same weight. She lost by 4 lengths. Does she have a chance in today's race?
The answer is yes, of course, because each pound will equal at least a length at the finish of the race according to most students of weight and handicapping. Therefore, you decide the odds and her chances compute to a win bet and you prepare to make a wager. However, on the screen, just before the post parade, you see the information on overweights and sure enough, the jockey is 2 pounds overweight so she is now carrying 120 pounds.
To make matters worse, there is another horse in the field who is being ridden by an apprentice who gets a 7 pound allowance so that horse is now only carrying 115 pounds. The plot, as they say, thickens. In order to determine what impact these new weights will have on the final result of the race, it is necessary to factor in the weights and deduct or add lengths accordingly. There are several questions that the astute handicapper must now ask him or herself.
The first question is how much did the horse that now has the apprentice advantage lose by in its last race? The next step is to deduct the 7 pounds from your projected finish for that runner and to see if it makes that one competitive.
The next question, and this one trumps all others, is just how much will each runner advance or regress from its last performance based on form and equipment changes? Weight calculations and adjustments to final times and beaten lengths must always be made with the form cycle in mind. The horse may be getting stale or it may be rounding into good form. The addition of blinkers may help it to stay focused on racing or a tongue tie may keep it from choking down in the late stages of the race.
It isn't enough to look at speed and pace figures to determine who will win the race, it is also necessary to factor in weight, and I mean the real weight after all race day changes are noted, equipment changes, and form. The extra two pounds that the fat jockey brings to the race will have an impact, but will it be enough to change the final result? That question may be answered by deducting lengths and using a simple rule of one length per pound means the horse will lose two lengths to the competition.
If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth. Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.
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