Fast Horses and Fat Jockeys Lose Races Because Weight Does Matter

Weight is assigned to horses in each race in order to handicap each one according to its age and performance, or so the theory goes. There are many people who wonder if a few pounds one way or the other really matters to a thousand pound thoroughbred. Of course it matters, but the question is, how much will it affect the runner's speed and finish?

Let's look at a hypothetical situation of a one mile race for three year old fillies. One filly who fits the conditions of the race to a tee has the lowest assigned weight of 118 pounds. The rest of the field are carrying 122 pounds. In hr last race the low weight filly faced many of these same races and they were all carrying the same weight. She lost by 4 lengths. Does she have a chance in today's race?

The answer is yes, of course, because each pound will equal at least a length at the finish of the race according to most students of weight and handicapping. Therefore, you decide the odds and her chances compute to a win bet and you prepare to make a wager. However, on the screen, just before the post parade, you see the information on overweights and sure enough, the jockey is 2 pounds overweight so she is now carrying 120 pounds.

To make matters worse, there is another horse in the field who is being ridden by an apprentice who gets a 7 pound allowance so that horse is now only carrying 115 pounds. The plot, as they say, thickens. In order to determine what impact these new weights will have on the final result of the race, it is necessary to factor in the weights and deduct or add lengths accordingly. There are several questions that the astute handicapper must now ask him or herself.

The first question is how much did the horse that now has the apprentice advantage lose by in its last race? The next step is to deduct the 7 pounds from your projected finish for that runner and to see if it makes that one competitive.

The next question, and this one trumps all others, is just how much will each runner advance or regress from its last performance based on form and equipment changes? Weight calculations and adjustments to final times and beaten lengths must always be made with the form cycle in mind. The horse may be getting stale or it may be rounding into good form. The addition of blinkers may help it to stay focused on racing or a tongue tie may keep it from choking down in the late stages of the race.

It isn't enough to look at speed and pace figures to determine who will win the race, it is also necessary to factor in weight, and I mean the real weight after all race day changes are noted, equipment changes, and form. The extra two pounds that the fat jockey brings to the race will have an impact, but will it be enough to change the final result? That question may be answered by deducting lengths and using a simple rule of one length per pound means the horse will lose two lengths to the competition.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth. Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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Pace and Weight Make the Race When Handicapping Horse Races

We've all heard that pace makes the race and for most of us, using pace as a handicapping factor is pretty standard procedure. However, there are times when you can still make a nice score off a pace scenario that has another factor involved. The two most common factors that will also impact the pace of a race and the outcome are distance and weight.

By weight, I mean the weight that a horse carries in the race. The actual weight that each runner carries, compared to the load each of the other runners has on his or her back, when compared to the rest of the field is one angle. Another comparison that should be made, however, is how much weight the runner carried last out and how much more or less it will carry in today's race.

A fine example of how a good wager can be found and consequently how a nice mutual ticket may be cashed was demonstrated in the 4th race at Saratoga on the 1st of August, 2011. It was a $25,000 Maiden Claiming race for 3 year olds and up run 1 3/16 miles over the turf course. The first thing that struck me about the race was how little pace there was except for the 10, East Indies, a three year old chestnut gelding by Orientate out of Classy Assets by Jade Hunter.

As you may already know, it is often hard for a horse to go gate to wire in a route race on the turf. It isn't impossible, but it is usually a horse coming from off the pace or even far back who wins the long races on the grass. To many who handicapped the race for non winners, I am sure that thought made them skeptical of East Indies's chances because he had taken the lead in his last race and faded in the stretch to be beaten.

The field was full of horses who would have plenty of kick at the end. That, however, can be a two edged sword. Yes, there would be many who would run well late, but who would challenge the front running East Indies? Then there was one more angle that sweetened the pot and closed the deal for me. East Indies was getting the services of bug boy Irad Ortiz, Jr. and would carry only 114 pounds.

That was 5 pounds less than the favorite would tote over the mile and a sixteenth and it was less than he had carried the last time out when he faded. The combination of no pressure on an early uncontested lead and less weight to take its toll in the stretch was the clincher. The fact that he went to post at 9-2 odds was an absolute gift.

The chestnut gelding sprinted clear in the early going and led by a full 9 lengths at the half.
Though Gunman, under strong urging by jockey Edgar Prado closed valiantly in the stretch, it was not enough to make up all the ground and East Indies won by a comfortable 3 1/4 length margin.

The lesson to be learned from this is that weight is a significant factor and should be used along with pace to determine how a runner will handle today's race.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

View the original article here