We've all heard that pace makes the race and for most of us, using pace as a handicapping factor is pretty standard procedure. However, there are times when you can still make a nice score off a pace scenario that has another factor involved. The two most common factors that will also impact the pace of a race and the outcome are distance and weight.
By weight, I mean the weight that a horse carries in the race. The actual weight that each runner carries, compared to the load each of the other runners has on his or her back, when compared to the rest of the field is one angle. Another comparison that should be made, however, is how much weight the runner carried last out and how much more or less it will carry in today's race.
A fine example of how a good wager can be found and consequently how a nice mutual ticket may be cashed was demonstrated in the 4th race at Saratoga on the 1st of August, 2011. It was a $25,000 Maiden Claiming race for 3 year olds and up run 1 3/16 miles over the turf course. The first thing that struck me about the race was how little pace there was except for the 10, East Indies, a three year old chestnut gelding by Orientate out of Classy Assets by Jade Hunter.
As you may already know, it is often hard for a horse to go gate to wire in a route race on the turf. It isn't impossible, but it is usually a horse coming from off the pace or even far back who wins the long races on the grass. To many who handicapped the race for non winners, I am sure that thought made them skeptical of East Indies's chances because he had taken the lead in his last race and faded in the stretch to be beaten.
The field was full of horses who would have plenty of kick at the end. That, however, can be a two edged sword. Yes, there would be many who would run well late, but who would challenge the front running East Indies? Then there was one more angle that sweetened the pot and closed the deal for me. East Indies was getting the services of bug boy Irad Ortiz, Jr. and would carry only 114 pounds.
That was 5 pounds less than the favorite would tote over the mile and a sixteenth and it was less than he had carried the last time out when he faded. The combination of no pressure on an early uncontested lead and less weight to take its toll in the stretch was the clincher. The fact that he went to post at 9-2 odds was an absolute gift.
The chestnut gelding sprinted clear in the early going and led by a full 9 lengths at the half.
Though Gunman, under strong urging by jockey Edgar Prado closed valiantly in the stretch, it was not enough to make up all the ground and East Indies won by a comfortable 3 1/4 length margin.
The lesson to be learned from this is that weight is a significant factor and should be used along with pace to determine how a runner will handle today's race.
If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.
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