Here is a question that any person who wants to win money betting on horses should be able to answer. What is the single most important factor in a horse race? This will create many arguments and the answer will be controversial, but after five decades of watching horses, here is my opinion, it's breeding. As an example, let's look at the triple crown races in the United States for the year 2011.
Shackleford won the Preakness, the shortest of the three races, but was caught and beaten in the other two. Many handicappers predicted that would happen and they were right. Animal Kingdom, the winner of the Kentucky Derby, was bred to run all day while Shackleford, though a great competitor with plenty of heart, just couldn't get the distance.
The same scenario played out in the Belmont when Ruler On Ice won at the classic distance of a mile and a half. This was perhaps one of the most obvious examples of breeding and how it can be used to handicap a horse race. The racing fans who backed Shackleford were betting against genetics and that is perhaps the surest way to go broke at the races, though few people use it as effectively as it can be used.
Every day, all over the world, thoroughbreds are asked to win at distances or over surfaces that they are not genetically equipped to handle. Millions of people bet fortunes on the runners. A much smaller percentage of horse racing handicappers win money betting on the horses who are bred to succeed. I'm not only talking about distance, but also surface and even the very track itself.
The term, "horses for courses," means certain horses seem to like a particular track and surface. One of the most famous of all time was Fourstardave, other wise known as, "The Sultan of Saratoga," because he won a race over the Saratoga track each year from 1987 to 1994. His career earnings were over one and a half million dollars and a stakes race at, "the Spa," (Saratoga Race Track) now bears his name.
For those handicappers who play Saratoga, looking over the runners bloodlines may be beneficial if they can find runners who share some of the same ancestors such as Nearco (on both sides of Fourstardave's parents) and Northern Dancer by Neartic out of Native Dancer on his sire, Compliance's side. There are no guarantees that a horse with the same bloodlines will be as successful as another, but controlled breeding has been how thoroughbreds were developed, so it does bear watching and following.
You will find certain bloodlines that win more often at certain tracks and distances. The bloodlines that win at a mile at Monmouth Park may not be as successful at a mile at Belmont. The same may be true of runners at Santa Anita who may or may not fare as well on the East Coast. Breeding is one more tool that you can use to evaluate the runners to establish the probability of winning and that is how good bets are found.
If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.
No comments:
Post a Comment