Trainer Moves Must Be Weighed Against The Competition When Handicapping

We've all seen the helpful information that most past performances now supply us with regarding trainer moves. They may say something like, "Dropping in class....28% ROI +3.80." In other words, when that trainer drops his horse in class they win at a 28% clip and produce a positive return on investment of $3.80. Wonderful, it is an instant bet and all you have to do is to go wait in line in preparation to getting paid, right? Wrong.

Just flat betting horses to win that have a positive ROI according to the purveyors of past performances is a one way ticket to the poor farm. How can that be? Because that is past information and as soon as the punters see those kinds of statistics they jump on the horse like fleas on a hound. They bet the horse down below fair value odds so it becomes a losing bet.

In other words, once the cat is out of the bag it is virtually impossible to make a profit on good trainer moves. So what then is the alternative? How about bad trainer moves? How about trainer moves that have a low win percentage and a lousy ROI? Is this crazy talk? Have I been sniffing the "white out" again? No, to all of the above.

There are times when you should bet on a horse even though the trainer moves seem to indicate that it is a poor proposition. Let's face it, if all you had to do to make money betting on horses was to read the trainer stats at the bottom of the horse's lines, we'd all be rich. Horse racing handicapping is not that simple. Most of the time you will make money going against the crowd, going against conventional wisdom, and doing things that seem wrong.

When you see that a trainer has only won 5% of the time with her first time starters and she has a first time starter in the race, should you throw the horse out of your calculations? Absolutely not. If anything, the crowd will read that and they will throw it out. You want to beat them not join them. How do you beat them? By taking the road less traveled. That horse may well be a good bet after all.

It depends upon how good the other horses are. Is there a standout horse in the race? If not, then why not take a shot on a real flyer. Long shot bets are where the money is and going against the crowd is how you find them. That 5% may not be very impressive, but ask yourself this, can this trainer win with a first time starter? The answer is yes, she can and she has proven it.

Then look at the odds and ask yourself if it pays enough to take a chance. You may not win often like this, but when you do it will pay very nicely. The only way you will ever make a profit at betting on horses is by going against the crowd and avoiding those trainer moves that supposedly show a profit.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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Horse Racing Handicapping - West Coast Speed and Handicapping

When handicapping horse races, a lot of credit is given to cheap speed when some people discuss West Coast racing, but is the "cheap" label deserved? In the past, before the introduction of all weather tracks, it was true that a lot of races were won at Hollywood and Santa Anita race tracks by horses running on the front end. But just because some California horses failed to win when shipped East, it doesn't mean that speed wasn't classy.

What really happens to horses shipping to the East Coast is that they need time to acclimate to the weather and track conditions as well as the running styles of the horses and jockeys who compete at the major venues in New York and New Jersey. When people fly 3,000 miles it takes them a while to acclimate to the difference in time and the same is true for animals.

Their internal clocks need to be reset and they also have to adjust to deeper tracks that require a different running style. Admittedly, some East Coast tracks do favor front runners at certain distances and on particular surfaces, but they are still running on deeper tracks.

Now that all weather poly tracks have been introduced the problem for horse racing handicappers is which running style will work best on the new man made surfaces. You can buy a list of sires that seem to pass on a gene that enables their progeny to run well on the synthetic surfaces and that will help you to pick some winners. You must also realize that shipping across the continent to compete against the best horses on the East Coast is a lot to ask of any athlete.

It is interesting to note that major league football teams that ship from the West to the East also experience problems. There is definitely a time component that works against them biologically. Football teams, because of their tight schedules, do not have the luxury of shipping in weeks earlier and gradually getting accustomed to the change in time zones.

Smart trainers, on the other hand, ship their horses East weeks ahead of a big race in order to work them over the track and to let them gradually get accustomed to the difference in time. Now obviously, horses can't tell time, but their bodily rhythms, like the rhythms of all living creatures, are determined by the sun and other natural forces. An abrupt change of venue means their internal clocks have to be reset and that takes time.

Therefore, when it comes to handicapping horse races with West Coast shippers, always check to see how long ago a horse shipped in. If you can't find out, be cautious when picking winners and err on the side of caution. You must get a good price on a West Coast horse in order to back it. It isn't because they are of inferior quality, but rather because they have had to deal with a big recent change that will affect most of them physically.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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Speed Rating Patterns in Horse Racing Handicapping

One of the most obvious indicators of a horse's true form is the speed rating it earns in a race, or so it seems at first glance. On closer examination, however, it becomes obvious that those figures must be taken in context and compared to other factors. The form cycle, though often overlooked, is still a good predictor of how a horse will run and when it will win. Modern training methods often overlook the natural physical cycles that horses undergo.

Some trainers try to win the first race a horse runs after an extended layoff. Their reasoning is that the animal is fresh and therefore will have more stamina than the other runners in the race who may be suffering from the stress of multiple efforts. This "win first race back," method works for some trainers, but perhaps in the long run, since the runner suffers so much stress without enough training for stamina and bottom, as it is called, has a bad effect in the long run and that is why so many thoroughbred horses have very short careers.

Years ago it was easier to chart a runner's form cycle by looking at three things. First of all, there was the speed rating itself. Secondly, you checked the pace of the race and how much effort the runner exerted. For instance, if a horse who wasn't known as a front runner was pushed to run on the front end in a race and wound up fading at the end and registering a poor speed figure, wise handicappers often knew that the trainer was building the horse up and would let it run its own style of race in one of its next two races. Finally, you checked the to see how soon it ran again.

The hard race on the front end would build a little tactical speed in and when allowed to run its own race next time out or second time out, the horse would score a much higher speed figure. Based on the pace of the and how quickly the conditioner brought his or her back, you'd have a good idea of whether he or she meant to win or to give the horse another race for conditioning.

One common patterns, that you will sometimes still find today, is for a horse to have a race or two to get back into shape, then a fast race where it is used hard for extra conditioning. The next race may be within ten days or so and will often just be a breezer to keep the horse sharp and stretch those muscles a bit more for tone. Finally, after that race, the horse will be sent for the win. In some cases you will even find the horse moved up in class for this race and a fine price can be had at the mutuel windows.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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Comparing Jockey Changes and Workout Times in Horse Racing Handicapping

When handicapping horse races a lot of time is spent in evaluating each of several factors. Unfortunately, many times we fail to see the big picture because we don't put the factors together in order to see a big picture. In other words, we fail to connect the dots.

Workout times can tell quite a story about a horse's conditioning and readiness to win, especially when they are used in conjunction with other data that is available in the past performances or in the racing program. One big change that is usually considered when handicapping horse races is the jockey switch.

When a jockey gets off a mount it is a big deal and many bettors want to know why the rider left the mount. They also compare one rider to the other to determine if it will improve the runner's chances of winning. In the case of an apprentice getting on a horse, the reasoning of the trainer is pretty obvious. The conditioner wanted the horse to have the advantage of carrying less weight than the other runners since apprentices get a weight allowance.

But what is the reason for a good jockey getting on or off a horse? Does it mean the horse is improving? Has the jockey's agent spotted something? Or is the rider simply getting paid to ride the horse and is going to get some air? Looking at the horse in the post parade may help you to determine if it has improved, but there is another way to check on the runner.

Look at the workouts and see what they can tell you. There are several things you should look for. First of all, there are the actual times of the morning works. Have they gotten faster? Do you see an improvement in time that would tell you that the runner is getting faster and in better racing shape? If so and a better jockey is getting on the horse, that may be a very positive sign.

On the other hand, even if the times don't improve, a change in the frequency may mean the runner is being pushed more to get it into shape. It may also mean that the animal is getting fit and ready. Finally, it may be that there was a physical problem that has been overcome, such as lameness and now it is capable of working more often and therefore will be more competitive in its next race.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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When It Comes to Horse Racing Handicapping, Be Unique, Just Like Everybody Else

The human ego being what it is, most of us like to think of ourselves as unique. The ones who really want to be thought of as unique, special, one of a kind, in other words, the rugged individual types, are often the long shot bettors at the track. Nothing says, "I'm taking the road less traveled," more than betting on a three legged horse with house maids knee. It is for this reason that those who like to assert their independence often lose their shirts.

Long shots are where the money is in horse racing, but just blindly betting on every runner who is going off at long odds is financial suicide. On the other hand, betting on a horse just because it is the favorite and has a lot of backers doesn't make good sense. The wise horse player knows there is a time to be a contrarian and a time to be a lemming, well not to the extent of jumping off a cliff, but at least to the point of being willing to bet on a horse even though others are betting on it, too.

What this all boils down to is that when you look at the odds on a horse you shouldn't be doing so to determine public opinion. Even though the odds board is a good indication of the public's faith in each runner, knowing what they think is only helpful when you realize that the crowd, as a rule, loses money on every race, even if the favorite wins.

The psychology of betting often reflects the nature of a person. For instance, some people will think of betting on a horse and then look at the tote board to check the odds. Person A's reaction to the horse being a favorite may be completely different than person B's reaction. Person A may be discouraged and not bet on the horse because he or she doesn't like to bet favorites and feel that he or she is being sheepish and going along with the crowd.

Person Be may look at the odds and, finding the horse is the public's choice, may feel that it is a good sign and therefore be willing to make the wager. Both people are missing the point. The purpose of checking the odds should be to see if the horse offers real value based on your estimate of the runner's chance of winning the race.

There is no problem with being one of the crowd and betting on a horse that is getting some support in the pools as long as the crowd you are joining is the one that looks for value in every bet and makes a profit in the long run. You won't be unique, but you will be part of a very small group of people, the ones who know that the real purpose of using the odds is to determine value, not probability.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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Picking Winners and Handicapping Horse Races Using Public Handicappers

Have you ever followed the public handicappers who put their picks in the newspaper or who work for the race track? You may find that some of them go on streaks and sometimes actually do quite well at finding winners. Of course, it is almost impossible for them to show a profit because they have to pick horses in every race. Playing every race and making a profit is about impossible. The best handicappers in the world pick their spots carefully and pass a lot of races.

But you as a horse player can do the same thing, so you don't have to play every horse that the public "cappers," pick. Think of that and the implications. You can follow them and determine where their strengths and weaknesses are. There is one that I can think of who handicaps the New York circuit and who is good at spotting live two year olds. He doesn't hit a lot of winners but has some very mice longshot bets in maiden races and shows a profit overall.

That is the kind of information that you can use and save yourself some time digging through the past performances. First of all, however, you have to determine just where the public capper's strength lies and then exploit it. You do that by printing out his or her picks and then getting the results and comparing them along with the payoffs.

The important thing is to note the kinds of race and the conditions. For instance, if it is a race for 3 year olds or 2 year olds, that is significant. The length of the race and surface is important, too. Keep track of all these things and start looking for patterns or long shot winners.

Obviously a winner here or there isn't a pattern, but if you watch him or her over a period of three or four months and he or she hits a high percentage of winners or enough long shots to show a profit, then you've found an easy way to find good bets. While the handicapper may not tell you which races are actually profitable for him or her, you will know.

It is interesting to note that after following public handicappers for months and seeing that some actually show a profit in certain kinds of races, like the example of the NY handicapper, even though some have a kind of race where they excel, many times, they don't identify them as their "best bets." For instance, handicapper A may show an overall profit in maiden races but when he or she picks his or her best bet of the day, it is in an allowance race.

That shouldn't bother you, however if you know that the real best bet is in another race and you use that information to identify your own best bet of the day.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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Horse Racing Handicapping Long Shot Bets Based on In The Money Percentages

Winning money betting on horses can be thrilling, intoxicating, addicting, and downright dangerous. If you get the bug for cashing bets on horses at long odds you're going to spend a lot of money and probably lose more than you win. That is one of the sad facts about handicapping horse races.

The money that the track takes out of the pools is so high, it is almost impossible to make a profit betting on horses. There are a few people who manage to make more than they lose, but they are the exception to the rule. Therefore, whether you play favorites, mid priced horses, or long shots, you should be cautious and look for the best value you can find.

One way to gauge a horse's ability is to look at how many times it finished in the money, that is first, second, or third. This is especially important in cheap claiming races where the owner is probably spending a lot to race a horse in races where the purses are cheap.

In cheap claiming races, horses that finish in the money often are earning checks for their connections and maybe even paying their own way. These "bread and butter horses," as they are often called, are often very good win bets even if they appear to be over matched by one or two other horses in the race.

The thing you must bear in mind if you're handicapping a claiming race is that these horses didn't make it to the bottom of the claiming ranks by being predictable or holding their form. The horse who has just put in a good performance and appears to be ready to win today could just as easily throw in a clinker and run out of the money. On the other hand, the runner who always seems to find it's way into the trifecta may be the winner today.

Consistency is the rarest of all qualities in cheap races, not speed, class, or pace. That's because consistency and form are both based on soundness and most cheap claimers have a physical problem or two or maybe they just lack athletic ability. Whatever the case may be, horses who can find their way into the money time and again do win occasionally.

Their ability to hold their form and to run competitively is the most important factor and therefore should be considered above speed, pace and all the rest. You will often find them at long odds simply because other horses seem to have more speed or class or the pace scenario seems to be working against them. Ask yourself this question, however, how do they always seem to make it into the money at the end of the race? The answer is obvious, they overcome adversity and that is exactly what makes a good longshot bet.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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Handicapping Tip - At What Point Do Training Methods Change in Horse Racing?

The training methods of thoroughbred race horses have been studied by many handicappers so that they can understand what the trainer is trying to accomplish with a horse and also so they can determine if he or she will be successful. Watching the methods of the great conditioners, one quickly learns that getting a cheap claimer to the winners circle often involves different strategies than winning big races.

The first handicapping tip you should learn is that you will probably never make a profit betting on horses unless you understand the basics of conditioning a horse and how the greats do it. When you sit down to evaluate the runners in a race, what you are really doing, other than comparing each of them to the rest of the field, is trying to determine how that horse will run in today's race.

The only way you can gauge the runner's ability is to look at what the trainer has done and try to figure out if the runner will improve, stay the same, or regress. Nothing in the business of betting on horses is static, especially the actual condition of the runners. The trainer is the person who has the most direct effect on the horse. Looking at equipment changes, workout times and frequency, and which races the runner is placed in will help you to figure out what the conditioner has planned for the horse.

You will notice that stakes horses and runners in big races are usually more formful and keep their conditioning longer. The bottom of the barrel claimers usually have some physical problems that limit them and also make them unpredictable. Therefore, at some point between the cheapest claimer and the highest priced performer, you'll notice a difference in the frequency of workouts and the speeds.

Super trainers such as Bob Baffert will often push a great runner such as Coil through a half mile workout like the work that Coil posted before the Travers. Coil went the half in company in 46.12 seconds. While a top performer like Coil can work like that and come back within a week and race a big race against Grade 1 horses, cheap claimers would need more time off and would probably also come back lame from such an effort.

While horses in Starter Allowances and Handicaps may not be of the same caliber as Coil and other Grade 1 performers, it is good to note that when one works fast and is brought right back it is often a very good indication of a sound horse. The cutoff point is usually somewhere around the top claiming prices where horses slip from high priced claiming races into Starter Allowance ranks and back to the big claimers.

Don't look for fast workouts in the cheap claiming ranks and if you do see one, be cautious because it may have taken more out of the horse and it will run a poor race. Therefore, fast works may be excellent indicators of conditioning for the top horses, but often have the opposite effect on cheap horses.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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Horse Racing Handicapping Trade Offs When Weighing Odds and Payoffs

If you are trying to make money betting on horses and handicapping horse races, you may have already come to several conclusions. One conclusion you may have reached is that it's hard to make money playing the ponies. Another decision you may have reached is that you have to weigh the odds a horse is going off at against its chances of winning in order to make a profit.

In other words, your job as a handicapper is to evaluate a horse's form, speed, class, and connections and to determine what its chances of winning may be. If the same race was run 10 times, how many times would this horse win? If you think the horse would win 2 times out of ten and you bet a minimum of $1 per race, then your horse would have to pay 4-1 odds or better just for you to break even, since a horse at 4-1 odds pays $5 to win based on a $1 bet.

The whole process of finding value gets much more complicated when playing exotics especially when they involve three or more horses. I know many people who play trifectas like to keep the favorite in their combinations because they hit the board about 70% of the time, but they also like to include a few long priced horses in order to cash in on those longshots when they manage to get their noses into the trifecta.

While including long priced horses will help you to cash bigger trifecta tickets, it also will mean fewer times that you cash, and since it is so difficult to determine actually payoffs, it becomes a hit or miss process for most horse players. Wheeling a horse in the exacta is a little easier to do when you're trying to figure odds and payoffs because projected exacta payoffs are usually on display somewhere at the track or OTB.

If you think a horse has a 20% chance of winning and the lowest exacta payoff for the $1 exacta is $20, then that will become the break even point. Next you must compute the cost of the entire wheel bet based on the size of the field. In an 8 horse race a $1 exacta wheel costs $7. In order to break even in ten races, you would have to make a minimum of $35 to cover your bets. Therefore, a $20 payoff just won't do. But what if the lowest paying exacta isn't what your wheel produces? Perhaps a long shot will come in with your key horse and you'll cash a $100 ticket.

It is that uncertainty that appeals to risk takers and gamblers, but when struggling to make money and when profit is imperative, the straight win bet with a close approximation of the final payoff is the best method of betting on horse races for most handicappers.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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Jockey Switches Can Signal a Win or Loss Depending On These Handicapping Factors

One of the most confusing factors horse racing handicappers have to deal with is when a jockey gets off one horse to ride another. What does is mean? First of all, how good is the rider who got off the mount and how good is the new one? That will tell you a lot.

Secondly, what experience has the new rider had with the horse? While we're on the subject of experience, what is the jockey trainer combo winning percentage? Yes it is tricky and that's why so many would-be horse players struggle with it.

The subject of horse racing handicapping is a complicated and risky business. There are no black and white, yes or no answers to these questions. The obvious answer, however, is often the right one. For instance, if the jockey who got off the horse has a far better win average than the new reinsman, then it is a pretty good bet that he or she has chosen a better horse and has given up on the other mount.

Winning riders get those high percentages and win riding titles at race tracks because they or their agent can spot a good mount and can also pick the better of the two when given a choice. Therefore, using the other handicapping factors of speed, class, pace, and recent form, which of the two mounts looks better, more likely to win?

If your handicapping picks the same horse the top jockey chose, then you are probably correct. Experience has taught me that when it comes to a choice between two horses, most jockeys do choose the right one. On the other hand, and here is where this all gets so tricky, you have to shop for value in your bets if you are going to make a profit betting on horses.

The rest of the horse players will also notice the switch and will probably lay off the horse that was abandoned by the better jockey. That means the odds will be higher, perhaps producing an overlay, on the horse that was left behind. Using your best handicapping skills, ask yourself what the horse should go off at and then increase it by at least 25%. Why increase your line on the horse? Because there may very well be something that the jockey knows about that horse that you don't know.

In almost all of these situations, even using your best handicapping and taking into consideration the odds offered, you will find the horse is not a good bet and should be left alone.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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Horse Racing Handicapping Trifectas, Form Cycles, and Consistency

Hitting trifectas and cashing big tickets is one of the great joys of horse racing handicapping. It is also very difficult and potentially expensive. Missing too many bets when trying to win a trifecta is one of the best ways to lose your bankroll and wind up in the poor house. That's why many "tri" players try to find consistent horses to use in their wagers.

Some people add up the number of times a horse has finished in the money for the year and divide it by the total number of races in order to get a consistency rating based on a percentage. For instance, if a horse has finished in the money, first, second, or third 8 times and has raced 16 times this year, it has been in the money (ITM) 50% of the time.

Finding the runners in the race with the highest ITM% is one way to build a tri wager. Some players then box them and figure they've covered the most logical choices and therefore have the best chance of winning. Unfortunately for them, that isn't how it works in real life. For one thing, any handicapping done with past performances, which is how most of us look at the races, is done by looking in the past and trying to project into the future.

It doesn't matter whether you are handicapping the races or the stock market, anyone who has tried this method of using the past to prognosticate knows that it is risky and difficult. On the other hand, what else is there? The problem with using an ITM% based on the total number of races for the year is that the form cycle affects in the money finishes.

Naturally, when a horse is returning after a lay off and rest it may take a few races to get back into mid season form. Therefore, it may finish out of the money. On the other hand, if a horse is in mid season form, at the peak of the form cycle, you would expect it to have a very good chance of finishing in the money, perhaps even winning.

It's okay to divide ITM finishes into the total number of races for the year, but before you use that figure, ask yourself if the runner is at its peak, getting better, or getting worse. If you have a choice between a horse with about 50% ITM finishes who has been racing a lot, maybe too much and a horse with a 40% ITM, but who is just starting to get into shape, the latter of the two may be the better horse to include in your trifecta box or wheel bet.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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Where To Find Most Winners When Handicapping Horse Races

After the race it is so much easier to find the winner and why it won than it is before the race. By looking at one hundred races and noting which horses won and why, you'd think anyone would soon be able to pick winners like a pro. Such is not the case, however, and handicapping horse races remains one of those difficult things that appears so simple at first glance.

Some horse racing handicappers try to narrow it down by using statistics. The most well known and over used statistic regarding winners at the horse races is the knowledge that the favorites win approximately one third of the races. Anyone who attends the races and tries betting on favorites as a way of making money betting on horses quickly learns, however, that it just doesn't pay. They are almost always a poor bet because so many people wager on them.

If a runner at 9-5 odds has a 33% chance of winning, then you will receive $5.60 for every $6.00 wagered on horses at those odds. Though the actual winning percentage may go up or down according to the odds, there is rarely a time when a favorite will pay enough to offset the cost of wagering. Even extremely popular favorites at odds of less than even money are often a losing bet.

So what odds and percentages and where in the betting order should we shop for winners that will pay enough to make a profit? That is a question that number crunchers and professional handicappers try to answer every day. Supposedly, a long time ago, Dutch Shultz, the infamous gangster, with the help of his accountant, figured out that certain horses were overlays and they could bet on more than one horse and still make a profit.

Though it was the golden age of horse racing wagering and odds were still crude and it was possible to find good bets based on the odds of winning. Dutch figured out that the favorite won a third of the time and the second favorite won 20% of the time. He also figured out the odds of winning for the top five horses in the odds. Horses beyond the top five won so rarely that he concentrated his efforts on those runners and watched the odds.

When he found an overlay based on the expected win percentage, he bet the horse and cleaned up. Before you rush out the door to try that how, however, be warned, it doesn't work as well any more. We no longer bet with bookies and pari-mutuel wagering has trimmed the fat from the pools making it much more difficult to win. However, the odds of each of the top five horses winning still holds true today, though it varies a little from track to track and season to season.

Roughly 80% of all winners come from the top five betting choices. As I said, it may vary a little but overall, that is where you will find most of the winners so that is probably where most of your betting should take place unless you are specifically playing long shots and have a good method of finding horses that are overlooked by the crowd.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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How to Use a Simple Grading System To Dramatically Improve Your Thoroughbred Handicapping

The fact that you're reading these words tells me something about you. It is this: you are a fan of thoroughbred racing. You enjoy the excitement of the race... the nervous roar of the live crowd at the track... the thrill of the finish line. But, if you're anything at all like me, you love the trip to the window when the race is over - so that you can "cash in" on your handicapping skills - collect on your winning bet. The problem is, you probably don't "cash in" enough to be a big winner. Relax...

The Addition of a Simple Grading System Can Improve Your Winning Percentage.

It's true. If you combine your existing horse race handicapping skills with a Grading System that helps you locate "the real live horses" in any race, you're going to win more frequently... and lots more money. You may be saying to yourself, right now, that all of this sounds like "Hogwash"... just a sales pitch to get you to spend money on something you may not want. Guess what... this is not a sale pitch... nothing of the sort. Simply stated, it's an effort - by me - to help you become a better handicapper and a more consistent winner.

Grading Horses Effectively Enables You to Eliminate "Slow Runners."

Think about that. If you can eliminate the horses that will be stopping or slowing down as they reach the stretch, you're going to be ahead of the game... way ahead. In addition, you are likely to cash bets on horses that are overlooked by betters who follow the dreaded "Morning Line." In fact, you will discover that many "slow runners" are Morning Line favorites... horses that will take much more money in "Win Bets" than they deserve.

Effective Grading Leads to Bets on Horses that go off at "Long Odds."

It stands to reason that, if slow horses get bet like favorites, faster horses (the ones you will find through the Grading System) will go off at big odds. And that means you will have opportunities - lots of them - to find and cash in on horses that pay off at 7-1... 10-1... even 15-1 or 20-1... and higher. Sound impossible or at least improbable? It's entirely possible. And, if fact, it is already helping skilled and experienced handicappers - like you - to win big.

The Grading System is Simple to use for Every Race on which you "Watch and Wager."

You'll be able to put this system to work even on days when you're at the track. All that's required is to use the printed program and "past performance" information to create Letter Grades - A, B, C and D - based on speed, track condition, physical fitness and race readiness to find the 3-4 likely winners... and the horses that will be finishing at the back of the pack. It's easy, it's fast... and it works.

Are you a horse handicapping enthusiast or just a lover of the sport? Either way, you should definitely make a visit to HorseHandicappingEnthusiast.com. It is nothing fancy, but is place where all things horse racing related are talked about!

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Handicapping Horse Races and Gambling Tips

Are you a horse player or a gambler? Knowing the answer to that question can help you to be a winner. Maybe you're a little of both but more of one than the other. The old saying, "To thine own self be true," might well apply to gambling and handicapping and also might help you to finally succeed if you are struggling to make a profit from the horse races.

Do you sometimes struggle with your own behavior? Do you make bets and then wonder why you bet a certain horse? Sooner or later, it happens to all of us who would handicap a horse race and make a profit. Sometimes it is an impulse and we later regret the bet and other times it is based on insecurity or poor judgment.

If you really want to make a profit, you have to know what makes you love to bet on horses and then use that to motivate and inspire yourself to go the extra mile to win. Here is how it works. First of all, after you place a bet and as the race is unfolding, how do you feel? Is there an impending sense of doom? Are you elated and hopeful? Can you bear to watch the race? Is your heart pounding? If so, a good part of why you play the horses is because you like the thrill of gambling. That's not a bad thing if you can use that positively.

On the other hand, when the race is getting ready to go, are you scanning your racing form and going over the horses one more time? Do you watch the race with curiosity and note how certain horses are running and the pace of the race? Do you make notes about the race or see things you might use in the future? If so, then you have the curiosity of a handicapper.

Maybe your behavior is a combination of those two scenarios. That means you're like most horse players and enjoy a good bet and gambling, but also like to handicap and figure things out.

Here is how to use those two personality traits to win more and lose less. First of all, if you like to gamble, admit it to yourself. You're a risk taker and you like it even though you may go through a range of emotions while the race is being run that runs the gamut from exquisite pain to exaltation. If that is the case then you should realize that the horses you pick and the bets you make will have to have some risk involved and everything will not be cut and dried for you.

As a handicapper you want to be able to evaluate the horses and to know which one has the edge in class, speed, pace, etc. But as a gambler, once you know that information, you'll look for a bet that has some risk and also some benefit, as in a high payoff. While handicappers often play favorites and low priced horses, gamblers are more prone to play the higher priced horses and exotic bets. Handicappers who lack a strong desire to gamble are usually grinders and try to grind out a living at the track and gamblers go for the big score.

The whole point is that you should know which scenario will inspire you. If you get excited adding up your wins for the month and find out that you managed to grind out 10% profit from carefully placed win bets, that's what you should stick with. On the other hand, if you like hitting that big trifecta and cashing out the month in the black despite some big ups and downs, that's not problem as long as you have the cash to sustain that and also realize how risky it is.

Trying to be something you are not is the quickest way to fail at playing the horses. Figure out which kinds of bets you can live with and then stick with them.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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Remember That Horse Racing Handicapping Should Be Fun

Money is on the minds of most people when they handicap horse races and make bets. In fact, for many of us, getting money and using it as wisely as we can is the thing on which we spend the most effort and time. While shirt sleeve philosophers point out that money can't bring happiness and the things in life that are most important aren't things at all, poverty usually means that the pursuit of happiness will be on a back burner until prosperity is back on her perch.

In other words, it's about the money. That doesn't mean that it should be drudgery, though, and horse racing handicapping can be an intellectual sport that you enjoy. In fact, the more you enjoy it the more likely you are to stay fresh, keep an open mind, and win. Therefore, though you may have a handicapping system that you try to stick to or a routine that seems to work or almost work, don't get stuck in a rut.

Do you remember the first time you saw a horse race? Do you remember your first trip to a race track? Wasn't it fun? Granted, you may have seen the money changing hands and thought that you'd like to get a piece of that pie, but you probably also thought that it was a fun way to make money. Only when you started working at learning how to handicap and manage money properly did you realize how much work it is.

Think of how you feel about horse racing handicapping right now and ask yourself if you are looking forward to the challenges of the day or dreading them? Are you merely resigned to another day of struggling to find winners or are you eager to start? I can tell you from personal experience that horse racing handicapping is very difficult and if you aren't passionate about it, you probably won't succeed unless you are very fortunate.

If it is only gambling and the associated thrills that you seek, there are easier ways to take chances. In fact, if you like gambling too much, then you probably would be better off finding some other hobby or job. Admittedly, when you bet you take a chance, but if you make a wager and think to yourself that it is real iffy as to whether or not you win, then you are probably leaning too heavily on luck and not using skill and research as much as professional handicappers use them.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth. Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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One Way to Improve Your Horse Racing Handicapping Right Now

You may have been trying to make money betting on horse races for years or you may have just started betting, but whatever the case may be and no matter how long you've been a horse player, there is always room for improvement. Handicapping races means being aware of ever changing trends, biases, statistics. One thing we all learn is that we have to keep an open mind and be willing to change our opinions and views in order to stay ahead of the crowd.

One of the most important points any horse player can learn is that when using the past performances to predict the future, you can't expect each horse to run the same as it did in its last race. Take a moment to think about that and ask yourself how many times you look at a horse and expect it to register the same speed figure and running style as it did in its last race. Sooner or later, we all fall into that trap.

Because of modern training methods and the rigors of racing, some things have changed over the years. At one time, not long ago, the form cycle was considered the most important factor in picking winners. Trying to figure out how much or how little a horse improved or declined from his or her last race was considered the most important factor in handicapping. There was a time when horses very rarely won on their first or second race after a layoff, but that is no longer the case.

Trainers often bring a horse back to the races today ready to run first time out. Some horses still need a race or two, but many don't. Yet you will still hear people talk about how many days it has been since a horse raced and to quote statistics about "recency." While you may still cling to the idea that a horse needs a few races before being considered a contender, ask yourself how much that idea is costing you.

If enough people still handicap that way, then it is reflected in the odds and means that if you go against that rule, you may get some better payoffs. This is just one example of the one thing you can do right now to instantly improve your handicapping and especially, you're chances of making money betting on horse races. Here is what you must do. Question everything, especially the things that you think are irrefutably true and cannot possibly be wrong. If you believe it, so do many other horse players. Turn the tables and start to think, "outside the box," as they say.

Ask yourself, "If I were to bet on horses regardless of the layoff and recent race factor, would I make more money?" Then start to challenge every other handicapping notion you may have.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth. Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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Horse Racing Handicapping and Fear and Loathing, Going Gonzo for Speed

When he wrote his 1970 article, "The Kentucky Derby is Decadent and Depraved," Hunter S. Thompson was writing about the lewd, drunken, drug laced parties in the infield and the culture that seemed to surround horse racing. He spent his time with the partiers in the infield and those who partied for several days before the big event and finally he and Ralph Steadman, who provided sketches for the piece, realized that, we have enemy and it is us. In other words, partying and drinking and using drugs suited the famous writer and originator of Gonzo journalism right down to the soles of his feet.

That may have skewed his vision of horse racing a little because horse racing fans are a mixed bag ranging from the two dollar bettor who is a tee totaler all the way up to the swells in the clubhouse and covering all layers of the social strata. You can't characterize horse players or race goers as drinkers or non drinkers and you can't put a label on them other than to say if you looked through the entire race going, horse betting public, you could probably find just about any kind of person you could imagine and probably a few species that haven't been classified yet.

Unfortunately, as time goes by, we are finding more and more that drugs are playing a bigger and more significant role in the training and conditioning of horses. If Mr. Thompson was following and writing about horse racing today, I'm certain he'd have plenty to say about the drugs being used to enhance the horse's performance and to cheat bettors. That's what it is, by the way. When you do something against the rules or the law in horse racing it is a crime and should be treated as such. Real money is involved and also the public's trust.

It all stems from the Gonzo quest for speed. Like pages numbered and pulled from a notebook, trainers, snatch at this and that trying desperately to win. The idea that horses just need good food, water, exercise and some good handling to become successful race horses has gone the way of the ten cent cigar. It is all based on financial survival and that is because things are skewed, the playing field is not level.

How can good honest horse conditioners compete against the crooks with their juiced up runners? Some trainers confess that they loathe the idea of using performance enhancing drugs, but they fear financial ruin if they don't win. The honest trainers can't fix it. The horse players can't fix it, they can only drop out and go and try to find another game. The only ones who can do anything about this are the authorities and they have to come down hard and fast and that means that when the cheaters are caught they have to be dealt with severely.

Here's an idea, how about treating fraud and theft like the crimes that they are? Instead of a slap on the wrist a lifetime ban and then a trip to criminal court to face charges? It will hurt horse racing at first but when the game is cleaned up we'll stop the hemorrhaging and stop losing horse players. They say there's no such thing as bad publicity and that may be true. Maybe a nationwide campaign to clean up horse racing and lots of headlines about how the industry it getting its act together is just what we need.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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The Golden Rule of Horse Racing Handicapping and Betting

What is the golden rule of handicapping? What one thing should every person who has ever placed a bet on a race know? That is a tough question and before I answer it, do yourself a favor and ask yourself, "If a friend asked me for just one piece of information, just one golden rule of horse racing, what would it be?"

Your answer will probably be based on one bad bet or bad beat that you received. Perhaps you bet an exacta straight with a longshot in it and had the exacta come in backwards. The lesson you learned was that you should always box or back up your bet. If a long shot is good enough to come in second at long odds, then it is good enough to win, sometimes. It's those sometimes that get us and make us wonder why we play the races.

Another candidate for GR status is based on a bad move that we have all probably been guilty of at one time or another. It's the old, "Don't try to make up your losses on one big bet at the end of the day." To compound the infraction we also often will bet the favorite figuring it has a better chance to win, right? There is so much money on it, it must be a good horse. That is the worse logic going. The reason it is being pounded by the bettors is because a lot of other players are trying to recoup their losses as well.

The truth of the matter is, some days you are going to lose. Chasing losses with bad bets and lousy decision making only compounds the problem. Unless you have a good bet in the last race and you can get the odds you need, pass the race. There's always fresh (tomorrow).

Yes, "Don't' try to make up your losses with bad bets made out of desperation," is another good candidate for the golden rule.

No article on horse racing's golden rule would be complete without a mention of money management. Money management is the single most important factor in gambling and horse playing success. Now I'm not saying you have to be a cpa or bean counter to survive in this tough game, but you do need a plan and you have to stick to it pretty well or you'll blow any chance of making a profit.

Therefore, perhaps another good one is, "Plan ahead and set limits, and use good money management."

While any one of these suggestions would be good advice for your friend, how about this, there is no absolute golden rule, but you should be aware that it is the situation and race that demands you to use good judgment based on the conditions of the day?

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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Pace and Weight Make the Race When Handicapping Horse Races

We've all heard that pace makes the race and for most of us, using pace as a handicapping factor is pretty standard procedure. However, there are times when you can still make a nice score off a pace scenario that has another factor involved. The two most common factors that will also impact the pace of a race and the outcome are distance and weight.

By weight, I mean the weight that a horse carries in the race. The actual weight that each runner carries, compared to the load each of the other runners has on his or her back, when compared to the rest of the field is one angle. Another comparison that should be made, however, is how much weight the runner carried last out and how much more or less it will carry in today's race.

A fine example of how a good wager can be found and consequently how a nice mutual ticket may be cashed was demonstrated in the 4th race at Saratoga on the 1st of August, 2011. It was a $25,000 Maiden Claiming race for 3 year olds and up run 1 3/16 miles over the turf course. The first thing that struck me about the race was how little pace there was except for the 10, East Indies, a three year old chestnut gelding by Orientate out of Classy Assets by Jade Hunter.

As you may already know, it is often hard for a horse to go gate to wire in a route race on the turf. It isn't impossible, but it is usually a horse coming from off the pace or even far back who wins the long races on the grass. To many who handicapped the race for non winners, I am sure that thought made them skeptical of East Indies's chances because he had taken the lead in his last race and faded in the stretch to be beaten.

The field was full of horses who would have plenty of kick at the end. That, however, can be a two edged sword. Yes, there would be many who would run well late, but who would challenge the front running East Indies? Then there was one more angle that sweetened the pot and closed the deal for me. East Indies was getting the services of bug boy Irad Ortiz, Jr. and would carry only 114 pounds.

That was 5 pounds less than the favorite would tote over the mile and a sixteenth and it was less than he had carried the last time out when he faded. The combination of no pressure on an early uncontested lead and less weight to take its toll in the stretch was the clincher. The fact that he went to post at 9-2 odds was an absolute gift.

The chestnut gelding sprinted clear in the early going and led by a full 9 lengths at the half.
Though Gunman, under strong urging by jockey Edgar Prado closed valiantly in the stretch, it was not enough to make up all the ground and East Indies won by a comfortable 3 1/4 length margin.

The lesson to be learned from this is that weight is a significant factor and should be used along with pace to determine how a runner will handle today's race.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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The Top Three Horse Racing Handicapping Mistakes You Should Never Make

One of the biggest challenges that most people face when they handicap horse races and try to make a profit is overcoming the vig. In plain English, it is almost impossible to make a profit because you have to pay so much for the privilege of being able to make a bet on a horse race. Therefore, the profit margin does not allow for making even one mistake that can be avoided because that one mistake can mean the difference between success or failure.

While no one is perfect and we each will make the occasional blunder, making errors that could easily be avoided will not only bankrupt you, but also cause you unnecessary frustration and pain. Therefore, let's look at three mistakes that many horse players make.

First and foremost is the lack of planning. Think of a trip to the races or OTB as a financial campaign or even a war or battle, even if it is only a skirmish behind enemy lines. There is probably no other time in your life when you would spend money with little thought or planning and expect to make money, but that is exactly what many people do when they bet on horse races. While luck is a factor, for most it is fleeting and an unknown quantity, so plan and write it down and don't depend on luck.

When I say write it down, I mean write down how much money you start with and a reasonable total for how much you'd like to make for the day. Then write down the names of horses you are following or ones that you feel might be a good bet and write the reason down as well. Whether you win or lose, write down the outcome and whether you wagered on each one and the reasons. Keep your entire day's activities on one sheet of paper and after the day is over put it in a safe place. After you've accumulated a good collection of the daily sheets, review them. You may learn a lot including how to improve your horse racing betting.

Speaking of betting, do you sometimes bet on longshots? If you bet on horses in a wide range of odds, maybe a longshot here, a favorite there, perhaps a mid range odds horse now and then, bet the same amounts on each one. If a horse is worth a bet, it's worth a bet, and if it's worth a bet, in your opinion, then it could win. Granted longshots don't win as often, but when they do, they pay well. You may make as much on longshots as favorites, but you'll have to bet enough to make it pay.

Finally, don't spread yourself too thin. I started going to the races decades ago when you went to the race track and there was only the one track and races to bet on. There was no such thing as simulcasting. You played whatever was available at your local track. That usually meant that most people who attended regularly enough became experts when it came to knowledge of their local track. Can you say that you have enough knowledge of the players and biases and trends at any track to be considered an expert?

If you can't it is probably because, like many people in the age of simulcasting, you wager on many tracks and try to handicap them all. Consequently you become, "a jack of all tracks and master of none." Narrow down your focus and you may win more and lose less.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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