Showing posts with label Racing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Racing. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Be First In Horse Racing

Horse racing is widely popular all over the world, and it is the most bet on game, large wagers change hands every day on the sport. The horses that race are all what we call throuhgbreds, that means they are born for this sport all out of good stock. The sport itself derives when two or more of these horses ridden by jockeys "professional and amature" compete against each other on who is going to be first past the winning post.

Those that are watching this race then put a bet or wager on who will be first past the post, they will bet also on who will come in second or third.

What you will usually hear in this betting game is the term horse racing odds. If you follow racing, these terms are easy to understand but if you are a newcomer to the sport it can be a bit difficult to pick up.

Horse racing odds refers to the probability of which horse will come first in that race is shown on a tote board. The tote board shows the odds that are based on the amount of money you will win in relation to the wager that you put on.

How these odds are worked out is determined by deducting the amount of bet and its percentage in the total amount of money that was bet on the horses less a portion of the tracks fee which is estimated to be between 10-20 percent of the sum total.

Now if you find it difficult in reading a tote board, you can follow this simple procedure in computing the odds on a horse. To have an accurate calculation, you need to draw on some of the other figures in the tote board. This refers to the overall amount of the win pool and the sum of money bet on that horse. You must understand that the total pool is the money bet on all the horses in the overall. It does not pertain to the amount that will be paid up to the ones holding the winning tickets. The take that is from the winning ticket holder is deducted between 14-20 percent. This may vary depending on the state where you are in. All the money that is derived from the "take" goes to the local taxes, the horsemen, track expenses and the horse racing earnings. The payoffs employ the actual figures which are usually reduced to the nearest dime. This may vary depending on the rules that are shown at the race track.

If you are still having problems understanding what the odds for horse racing are all about you can go online which is full of resources giving you the correct information that you desire.

Choose the online resource that will best meet your requirements. Consider some of the most important elements you need to know such as the basics of horse race betting - how the whole wagering games goes and how you will pick the winning horse in the race track.

As a gambler myself I've tried a few horse racing systems. On my site first for horse racing I have given you the best that I have come across. Enjoy.
http://www.horseracingfirst.co.uk/


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Sunday, September 25, 2011

Horse Racing Handicapping - West Coast Speed and Handicapping

When handicapping horse races, a lot of credit is given to cheap speed when some people discuss West Coast racing, but is the "cheap" label deserved? In the past, before the introduction of all weather tracks, it was true that a lot of races were won at Hollywood and Santa Anita race tracks by horses running on the front end. But just because some California horses failed to win when shipped East, it doesn't mean that speed wasn't classy.

What really happens to horses shipping to the East Coast is that they need time to acclimate to the weather and track conditions as well as the running styles of the horses and jockeys who compete at the major venues in New York and New Jersey. When people fly 3,000 miles it takes them a while to acclimate to the difference in time and the same is true for animals.

Their internal clocks need to be reset and they also have to adjust to deeper tracks that require a different running style. Admittedly, some East Coast tracks do favor front runners at certain distances and on particular surfaces, but they are still running on deeper tracks.

Now that all weather poly tracks have been introduced the problem for horse racing handicappers is which running style will work best on the new man made surfaces. You can buy a list of sires that seem to pass on a gene that enables their progeny to run well on the synthetic surfaces and that will help you to pick some winners. You must also realize that shipping across the continent to compete against the best horses on the East Coast is a lot to ask of any athlete.

It is interesting to note that major league football teams that ship from the West to the East also experience problems. There is definitely a time component that works against them biologically. Football teams, because of their tight schedules, do not have the luxury of shipping in weeks earlier and gradually getting accustomed to the change in time zones.

Smart trainers, on the other hand, ship their horses East weeks ahead of a big race in order to work them over the track and to let them gradually get accustomed to the difference in time. Now obviously, horses can't tell time, but their bodily rhythms, like the rhythms of all living creatures, are determined by the sun and other natural forces. An abrupt change of venue means their internal clocks have to be reset and that takes time.

Therefore, when it comes to handicapping horse races with West Coast shippers, always check to see how long ago a horse shipped in. If you can't find out, be cautious when picking winners and err on the side of caution. You must get a good price on a West Coast horse in order to back it. It isn't because they are of inferior quality, but rather because they have had to deal with a big recent change that will affect most of them physically.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.


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Saturday, September 24, 2011

Speed Rating Patterns in Horse Racing Handicapping

One of the most obvious indicators of a horse's true form is the speed rating it earns in a race, or so it seems at first glance. On closer examination, however, it becomes obvious that those figures must be taken in context and compared to other factors. The form cycle, though often overlooked, is still a good predictor of how a horse will run and when it will win. Modern training methods often overlook the natural physical cycles that horses undergo.

Some trainers try to win the first race a horse runs after an extended layoff. Their reasoning is that the animal is fresh and therefore will have more stamina than the other runners in the race who may be suffering from the stress of multiple efforts. This "win first race back," method works for some trainers, but perhaps in the long run, since the runner suffers so much stress without enough training for stamina and bottom, as it is called, has a bad effect in the long run and that is why so many thoroughbred horses have very short careers.

Years ago it was easier to chart a runner's form cycle by looking at three things. First of all, there was the speed rating itself. Secondly, you checked the pace of the race and how much effort the runner exerted. For instance, if a horse who wasn't known as a front runner was pushed to run on the front end in a race and wound up fading at the end and registering a poor speed figure, wise handicappers often knew that the trainer was building the horse up and would let it run its own style of race in one of its next two races. Finally, you checked the to see how soon it ran again.

The hard race on the front end would build a little tactical speed in and when allowed to run its own race next time out or second time out, the horse would score a much higher speed figure. Based on the pace of the and how quickly the conditioner brought his or her back, you'd have a good idea of whether he or she meant to win or to give the horse another race for conditioning.

One common patterns, that you will sometimes still find today, is for a horse to have a race or two to get back into shape, then a fast race where it is used hard for extra conditioning. The next race may be within ten days or so and will often just be a breezer to keep the horse sharp and stretch those muscles a bit more for tone. Finally, after that race, the horse will be sent for the win. In some cases you will even find the horse moved up in class for this race and a fine price can be had at the mutuel windows.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.


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Thursday, September 22, 2011

Three Simple Horse Racing Truths and Angles

I don't mean to trivialize the difficulty of horse racing handicapping, but even though finding good horse racing bets may be difficult, there are a few angles that will help you to minimize losses and maximize profits, the goal of any good system. Since the business of picking winners can be so hard at times and we try to use every scrap of information to our advantage, we sometimes get overwhelmed in data and lose track of some very basic truths.

1. First of all, when you start to evaluate runners in a race, perhaps you should run through a little checklist the way pilots go through a checklist before they take off. At the top of that list, here is something you might want to check and double check. Is this a playable race? Not every race is worth wagering on and that is truth number one. There are some races, for whatever reason, that you should sit out.

Some handicappers call them chaos races. The problem is usually that there is no horse in the race that has ever accomplished what is being asked of it. Obviously, maiden races are chaos races, but they may still be playable if you can find a runner that has posted a par time equal to the average winning time or speed figure for maidens of that class. You'll want to avoid most chaos races unless you have a very good reason to bet one.

2. The second truth is that good money management will get you through times of bad handicapping but good handicapping won't get you through a run of poor money management. The one skill that every handicapper has to learn in order to make a profit betting on horses is how to manage a bank roll so that when you win you win big and when you lose losses are minimized. This has a lot to do with betting units and streaks. When you're on a losing streak your betting amounts should automatically adjust to minimize losses.

3. The third angle or truth is about those streaks we just mentioned. Don't chase your losses. If you've lost a packet and you're having a bad day, don't try increasing your bets in order to win back what you've lost. I anything reduce your wager amounts or quit and go home. The business of wagering on horse races is usually streaky and if you're on the skids, find another way to amuse yourself until it passes.

While it will take a lot more than three simple truths to beat the races, you will find that if you don't follow the advice above, you won't make a profit betting on horses.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.


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Tuesday, September 20, 2011

How to Read a Racing Program So That You Win Consistently

Thoroughbred Horse Racing over the last 40-50 years has developed a "hard core" group of fans. Perhaps that includes you. As a longtime fan of "the ponies," you probably believe that you know all that is necessary about "reading form" in a program and picking winners. And there is no doubt that you are quite knowledgeable. However, is it possible that you can learn even more? The answer is yes.

If you just look for "the Speed" in a Horse's Past Performance Lines, you are overlooking lots of Valuable Information.

That is the truth. How do I know? I also enjoy wagering on thoroughbred racehorses. In addition, over the years, I have read many books about "reading form," done lots of studying at various race tracks, as well... talked to lots of "skilled" players... and discovered that most people know how to "read some of the form." Speed matters... but several other factors are almost as important.

Success at the Race Track is Dependent on your Ability to understand and Use all of the Factors in a Race Program.

The first and most important factor you need to use to judge a thoroughbred race horse's ability to win is its Speed Rating... but you already know that. However, in order to excel at reading the program and then cashing winning tickets, you have to be able to take advantage of the other information available to you in the program. You should take into consideration- the horse's age... its sex... the track, track condition and any existing variances in the track - on that day... time off between races...owner, trainer and, of course, jockey.

Use all of Those Factors in an Intelligent Manner... and you are going to win.

Now, you may already know how to read - and use - some of the race factors I have mentioned. If so, that is good... and helpful to you. However, to be a consistent winner, even a "big money winner," you need to know how to use all of the factors mentioned here... because, when "lumped together: and understood, they arm you with the kind of knowledge that can make you as good as a professional handicapper.

Yes... Based on your Experience and Years as a Fan, you can - and should - Win Lots and Lots of Races.

There is absolutely no reason why, after doing something you love for years and years, you should not be really good at doing it. In addition, if you follow the advice offered here, you will improve as a thoroughbred horse racing handicapper and you will win... more often than you do now. Try it - by using all of the information available - and see for yourself.

Are you a horse handicapping enthusiast or just a lover of the sport? Either way, you should definitely make a visit to HorseHandicappingEnthusiast.com. It is nothing fancy, but is place where all things horse racing related are talked about!


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Sunday, September 18, 2011

Comparing Jockey Changes and Workout Times in Horse Racing Handicapping

When handicapping horse races a lot of time is spent in evaluating each of several factors. Unfortunately, many times we fail to see the big picture because we don't put the factors together in order to see a big picture. In other words, we fail to connect the dots.

Workout times can tell quite a story about a horse's conditioning and readiness to win, especially when they are used in conjunction with other data that is available in the past performances or in the racing program. One big change that is usually considered when handicapping horse races is the jockey switch.

When a jockey gets off a mount it is a big deal and many bettors want to know why the rider left the mount. They also compare one rider to the other to determine if it will improve the runner's chances of winning. In the case of an apprentice getting on a horse, the reasoning of the trainer is pretty obvious. The conditioner wanted the horse to have the advantage of carrying less weight than the other runners since apprentices get a weight allowance.

But what is the reason for a good jockey getting on or off a horse? Does it mean the horse is improving? Has the jockey's agent spotted something? Or is the rider simply getting paid to ride the horse and is going to get some air? Looking at the horse in the post parade may help you to determine if it has improved, but there is another way to check on the runner.

Look at the workouts and see what they can tell you. There are several things you should look for. First of all, there are the actual times of the morning works. Have they gotten faster? Do you see an improvement in time that would tell you that the runner is getting faster and in better racing shape? If so and a better jockey is getting on the horse, that may be a very positive sign.

On the other hand, even if the times don't improve, a change in the frequency may mean the runner is being pushed more to get it into shape. It may also mean that the animal is getting fit and ready. Finally, it may be that there was a physical problem that has been overcome, such as lameness and now it is capable of working more often and therefore will be more competitive in its next race.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.


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Friday, September 16, 2011

UK Horse Racing Past and Present

The sport of horse racing dates back to the very dawn of modern history, but quite apart from the thrill of seeing one's own mount reach the winning post ahead of the opposition the universal appeal of the sport lies in its vast associated gambling industry.

Each year over a hundred billion dollars is invested around the world by gamblers hopeful of outwitting the sportsbooks and enhancing their own personal fortunes. Long before online bookmakers brought us the opportunity to wager on tennis, rugby union and the likely winner of this year's Britain's Got Talent kings and queens, aristocrats and common folk alike would take a punt on the outcome of one of the many horse racing events that take place each and every day the length and breadth of the UK and indeed all around the world.

The origins of competitive horse racing trace back to the nomadic tribesmen of Central Asia, who first started to domesticate horses in around 4500 B.C. Both mounted and chariot racing were recognised as Olympic sports by the year 638 B.C., and horse racing was of course a popular sport amongst the Romans at the height of the Empire.

In the UK there are records of horse racing events being held in public on special occasions as early as the 12th century, but the sport in its modern form developed during the 17th century and in the 18th century became the first regulated sport in Britain due to the creation of the Jockey Club.

Modern racing essentially takes two forms, flat racing and the steeplechase (jumps). Both types of race are conducted over various distances and horses are usually bred and trained for a particular type of race over a particular distance. For instance the Arabian, Quarter Horse, Paint and Appaloosa are reared with flat racing especially in mind. Some horses perform at their best over short distances such as six or seven furlongs whilst others excel over longer distances.

Success in racing rarely comes over a sustained period to those whose wagers are inspired merely by guesswork or by inexpert consideration such as a memorable name or a lucky number. Whilst pure luck does on occasions play its part those who really are serious about profiting from horse racing will either have the knowledge themselves or, more often, will acquire it from someone who does in the form of horse racing tips based to some extent at least upon an intimate understanding of the industry.

Horse racing tipping services exist to satisfy this demand, and some of course are better than others. It is always worth taking the time out to research the background of those offering advice before jumping in.

Mark Richards is a professional writer working for The Middle Man, a business promotion service using its experience and expert knowledge of marketing strategy to generate important new business for its clients at a surprisingly low cost.


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When It Comes to Horse Racing Handicapping, Be Unique, Just Like Everybody Else

The human ego being what it is, most of us like to think of ourselves as unique. The ones who really want to be thought of as unique, special, one of a kind, in other words, the rugged individual types, are often the long shot bettors at the track. Nothing says, "I'm taking the road less traveled," more than betting on a three legged horse with house maids knee. It is for this reason that those who like to assert their independence often lose their shirts.

Long shots are where the money is in horse racing, but just blindly betting on every runner who is going off at long odds is financial suicide. On the other hand, betting on a horse just because it is the favorite and has a lot of backers doesn't make good sense. The wise horse player knows there is a time to be a contrarian and a time to be a lemming, well not to the extent of jumping off a cliff, but at least to the point of being willing to bet on a horse even though others are betting on it, too.

What this all boils down to is that when you look at the odds on a horse you shouldn't be doing so to determine public opinion. Even though the odds board is a good indication of the public's faith in each runner, knowing what they think is only helpful when you realize that the crowd, as a rule, loses money on every race, even if the favorite wins.

The psychology of betting often reflects the nature of a person. For instance, some people will think of betting on a horse and then look at the tote board to check the odds. Person A's reaction to the horse being a favorite may be completely different than person B's reaction. Person A may be discouraged and not bet on the horse because he or she doesn't like to bet favorites and feel that he or she is being sheepish and going along with the crowd.

Person Be may look at the odds and, finding the horse is the public's choice, may feel that it is a good sign and therefore be willing to make the wager. Both people are missing the point. The purpose of checking the odds should be to see if the horse offers real value based on your estimate of the runner's chance of winning the race.

There is no problem with being one of the crowd and betting on a horse that is getting some support in the pools as long as the crowd you are joining is the one that looks for value in every bet and makes a profit in the long run. You won't be unique, but you will be part of a very small group of people, the ones who know that the real purpose of using the odds is to determine value, not probability.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.


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Thursday, September 15, 2011

Horse Racing Handicapping Long Shot Bets Based on In The Money Percentages

Winning money betting on horses can be thrilling, intoxicating, addicting, and downright dangerous. If you get the bug for cashing bets on horses at long odds you're going to spend a lot of money and probably lose more than you win. That is one of the sad facts about handicapping horse races.

The money that the track takes out of the pools is so high, it is almost impossible to make a profit betting on horses. There are a few people who manage to make more than they lose, but they are the exception to the rule. Therefore, whether you play favorites, mid priced horses, or long shots, you should be cautious and look for the best value you can find.

One way to gauge a horse's ability is to look at how many times it finished in the money, that is first, second, or third. This is especially important in cheap claiming races where the owner is probably spending a lot to race a horse in races where the purses are cheap.

In cheap claiming races, horses that finish in the money often are earning checks for their connections and maybe even paying their own way. These "bread and butter horses," as they are often called, are often very good win bets even if they appear to be over matched by one or two other horses in the race.

The thing you must bear in mind if you're handicapping a claiming race is that these horses didn't make it to the bottom of the claiming ranks by being predictable or holding their form. The horse who has just put in a good performance and appears to be ready to win today could just as easily throw in a clinker and run out of the money. On the other hand, the runner who always seems to find it's way into the trifecta may be the winner today.

Consistency is the rarest of all qualities in cheap races, not speed, class, or pace. That's because consistency and form are both based on soundness and most cheap claimers have a physical problem or two or maybe they just lack athletic ability. Whatever the case may be, horses who can find their way into the money time and again do win occasionally.

Their ability to hold their form and to run competitively is the most important factor and therefore should be considered above speed, pace and all the rest. You will often find them at long odds simply because other horses seem to have more speed or class or the pace scenario seems to be working against them. Ask yourself this question, however, how do they always seem to make it into the money at the end of the race? The answer is obvious, they overcome adversity and that is exactly what makes a good longshot bet.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.


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Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Handicapping Tip - At What Point Do Training Methods Change in Horse Racing?

The training methods of thoroughbred race horses have been studied by many handicappers so that they can understand what the trainer is trying to accomplish with a horse and also so they can determine if he or she will be successful. Watching the methods of the great conditioners, one quickly learns that getting a cheap claimer to the winners circle often involves different strategies than winning big races.

The first handicapping tip you should learn is that you will probably never make a profit betting on horses unless you understand the basics of conditioning a horse and how the greats do it. When you sit down to evaluate the runners in a race, what you are really doing, other than comparing each of them to the rest of the field, is trying to determine how that horse will run in today's race.

The only way you can gauge the runner's ability is to look at what the trainer has done and try to figure out if the runner will improve, stay the same, or regress. Nothing in the business of betting on horses is static, especially the actual condition of the runners. The trainer is the person who has the most direct effect on the horse. Looking at equipment changes, workout times and frequency, and which races the runner is placed in will help you to figure out what the conditioner has planned for the horse.

You will notice that stakes horses and runners in big races are usually more formful and keep their conditioning longer. The bottom of the barrel claimers usually have some physical problems that limit them and also make them unpredictable. Therefore, at some point between the cheapest claimer and the highest priced performer, you'll notice a difference in the frequency of workouts and the speeds.

Super trainers such as Bob Baffert will often push a great runner such as Coil through a half mile workout like the work that Coil posted before the Travers. Coil went the half in company in 46.12 seconds. While a top performer like Coil can work like that and come back within a week and race a big race against Grade 1 horses, cheap claimers would need more time off and would probably also come back lame from such an effort.

While horses in Starter Allowances and Handicaps may not be of the same caliber as Coil and other Grade 1 performers, it is good to note that when one works fast and is brought right back it is often a very good indication of a sound horse. The cutoff point is usually somewhere around the top claiming prices where horses slip from high priced claiming races into Starter Allowance ranks and back to the big claimers.

Don't look for fast workouts in the cheap claiming ranks and if you do see one, be cautious because it may have taken more out of the horse and it will run a poor race. Therefore, fast works may be excellent indicators of conditioning for the top horses, but often have the opposite effect on cheap horses.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.


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Monday, September 12, 2011

A Horse Racing Angle Based on Running Style and Post Position

Winning horse racing bets is tough enough when you have inside information or work very hard at handicapping. Most horse players are always looking for a new angle and a few good bets. While some people evaluate every runner in a race and then determine a morning line for those horses, others just look through the past performances for a few good spot plays.

Whatever your style may be, being aware of what makes a good opportunity in wagering is important if you're ever going to make money betting on horses. The best bet in horse racing is a horse that runs like a favorite and is bet like a long shot. They are so rare, however, that you can wait weeks or even months to find one.

Getting an edge is how a gambler wins, whether it is in a casino, race track, or pitching pennies in a back alley. One angle that gives about as good an edge as anything I've ever found is post position and running style combined. Most players know that horses starting in the post have an advantage in many races.

One of the reasons for that is simple mathematics. Horses starting on the inside and running in what is called the one path have the shortest distance to travel around the track. If they run at the same speed as another horse but have to go a shorter distance, they win. So it isn't all about speed, it's also about position. You can get the post position statistics for different distances at your favorite track and start to add them to your regular handicapping.

If you really want to use those stats to your best advantage, however, you'll also dig a little deeper to see why horses win from those posts and how. When I say how, I mean, what running style wins? You will find, especially in the case of inside horses, that is horses starting in the one post or near the rail, that it is early speed that makes the difference, not just the post.

In fact, a slow starter that starts on the rail may often be at a disadvantage because it will have other runners cross over in front of it and will have to find a way through those horses or around them when it comes time to make a move for the finish line.

Now how do we combine running style and post position to give you the edge? Let's say that horses starting on the rail or one post in mile races at your favorite track are winning at a 22% clip. That isn't uncommon and once in a while is even higher. This includes harness races especially those on half mile tracks.

Let's also say that you keep accurate records and find out that most of those winners had good early speed. Now you can eliminate horses that are slow out of the gate, the ones that won't benefit from the post position and may even be at a disadvantage. Once you eliminate those horses, the winning percentage may go even higher. Depending upon how many slow starters break from that post, your actual win percentage may go up over 30%, just by eliminating horses whose running style doesn't fit the pattern.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.


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Horse Racing Handicapping Trade Offs When Weighing Odds and Payoffs

If you are trying to make money betting on horses and handicapping horse races, you may have already come to several conclusions. One conclusion you may have reached is that it's hard to make money playing the ponies. Another decision you may have reached is that you have to weigh the odds a horse is going off at against its chances of winning in order to make a profit.

In other words, your job as a handicapper is to evaluate a horse's form, speed, class, and connections and to determine what its chances of winning may be. If the same race was run 10 times, how many times would this horse win? If you think the horse would win 2 times out of ten and you bet a minimum of $1 per race, then your horse would have to pay 4-1 odds or better just for you to break even, since a horse at 4-1 odds pays $5 to win based on a $1 bet.

The whole process of finding value gets much more complicated when playing exotics especially when they involve three or more horses. I know many people who play trifectas like to keep the favorite in their combinations because they hit the board about 70% of the time, but they also like to include a few long priced horses in order to cash in on those longshots when they manage to get their noses into the trifecta.

While including long priced horses will help you to cash bigger trifecta tickets, it also will mean fewer times that you cash, and since it is so difficult to determine actually payoffs, it becomes a hit or miss process for most horse players. Wheeling a horse in the exacta is a little easier to do when you're trying to figure odds and payoffs because projected exacta payoffs are usually on display somewhere at the track or OTB.

If you think a horse has a 20% chance of winning and the lowest exacta payoff for the $1 exacta is $20, then that will become the break even point. Next you must compute the cost of the entire wheel bet based on the size of the field. In an 8 horse race a $1 exacta wheel costs $7. In order to break even in ten races, you would have to make a minimum of $35 to cover your bets. Therefore, a $20 payoff just won't do. But what if the lowest paying exacta isn't what your wheel produces? Perhaps a long shot will come in with your key horse and you'll cash a $100 ticket.

It is that uncertainty that appeals to risk takers and gamblers, but when struggling to make money and when profit is imperative, the straight win bet with a close approximation of the final payoff is the best method of betting on horse races for most handicappers.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.


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Saturday, September 10, 2011

Horse Racing Handicapping Trifectas, Form Cycles, and Consistency

Hitting trifectas and cashing big tickets is one of the great joys of horse racing handicapping. It is also very difficult and potentially expensive. Missing too many bets when trying to win a trifecta is one of the best ways to lose your bankroll and wind up in the poor house. That's why many "tri" players try to find consistent horses to use in their wagers.

Some people add up the number of times a horse has finished in the money for the year and divide it by the total number of races in order to get a consistency rating based on a percentage. For instance, if a horse has finished in the money, first, second, or third 8 times and has raced 16 times this year, it has been in the money (ITM) 50% of the time.

Finding the runners in the race with the highest ITM% is one way to build a tri wager. Some players then box them and figure they've covered the most logical choices and therefore have the best chance of winning. Unfortunately for them, that isn't how it works in real life. For one thing, any handicapping done with past performances, which is how most of us look at the races, is done by looking in the past and trying to project into the future.

It doesn't matter whether you are handicapping the races or the stock market, anyone who has tried this method of using the past to prognosticate knows that it is risky and difficult. On the other hand, what else is there? The problem with using an ITM% based on the total number of races for the year is that the form cycle affects in the money finishes.

Naturally, when a horse is returning after a lay off and rest it may take a few races to get back into mid season form. Therefore, it may finish out of the money. On the other hand, if a horse is in mid season form, at the peak of the form cycle, you would expect it to have a very good chance of finishing in the money, perhaps even winning.

It's okay to divide ITM finishes into the total number of races for the year, but before you use that figure, ask yourself if the runner is at its peak, getting better, or getting worse. If you have a choice between a horse with about 50% ITM finishes who has been racing a lot, maybe too much and a horse with a 40% ITM, but who is just starting to get into shape, the latter of the two may be the better horse to include in your trifecta box or wheel bet.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.


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Friday, September 9, 2011

Betting on Dead Horses, A Look at Instant Racing and the Future of Real Horse Racing

Did you ever bet on dead horse? I don't mean a runner that was so slow he or she was referred to as dead by the betting public, I mean really dead, as in no heart beat, history, a horse that is long gone. Well now you can and you can even win, providing the horses your dead horse beats are also dead.

This is no joke, it's called instant racing and it is done from a betting terminal. Many states have racinos where slot machines are available at the race tracks. Revenue from the slots is used to give sagging pari-mutuel revenue a boost and to hopefully keep horse racing alive. States like Kentucky, where slot machines are illegal and therefore cannot be used to help horse racing, have the alternative of offering a horse racing game, which is what is offered on the instant racing terminal.

Players are given racing forms and graphs to use to handicap races between great horses from the past. Virtual races are then run and the player's bets, based on the top three finishers of the race, are paid out. Revenue from the instant racing games is divided between horsemen, the state, and the race track. Does this sound like a good thing?

At Oaklawn Park in Arkansas, where instant racing was debuted in 2000 to overcome a sharp decline of 40% in racing revenue, it has helped to bring in much needed money to keep live racing alive. The problem is how many real racing fans are being added to the sports followers and how many of those potential fans are becoming video racing fans? Is this actually good for racing in the long run?

Will someone who plays the races on a machine want to walk outside the grandstand to watch a live race? When simulcasting was introduced it was going to be the salvation of racing and since it could offer the ability of patrons to watch racing just about anywhere, it was thought that many more people would become racing fans and bettors. It didn't happen.

How long will it be before casinos and instant racing become so popular that there will be a good enough argument to close the actual live racing down and to use the revenue from these other gambling venues to feed the budget needs of hungry states? This is one of the questions that is being asked while other groups, such as The Family Foundation in Kentucky who opposed the legalization of the instant racing games.

The legal argument seems to hinge on whether or not the instant racing game is a game of skill or chance. Games of chance are considered gambling while games of skill are considered sport since the player does have the ability to increase his or her odds of winning.

Since handicapping skill is required to win instant games, or at least that is the premise, it may in the end create a whole new crop of handicappers who honed their skills on virtual terminals and races featuring some of the greatest thoroughbreds of all times, even if they were dead when the virtual races were run.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.


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Monday, September 5, 2011

Remember That Horse Racing Handicapping Should Be Fun

Money is on the minds of most people when they handicap horse races and make bets. In fact, for many of us, getting money and using it as wisely as we can is the thing on which we spend the most effort and time. While shirt sleeve philosophers point out that money can't bring happiness and the things in life that are most important aren't things at all, poverty usually means that the pursuit of happiness will be on a back burner until prosperity is back on her perch.

In other words, it's about the money. That doesn't mean that it should be drudgery, though, and horse racing handicapping can be an intellectual sport that you enjoy. In fact, the more you enjoy it the more likely you are to stay fresh, keep an open mind, and win. Therefore, though you may have a handicapping system that you try to stick to or a routine that seems to work or almost work, don't get stuck in a rut.

Do you remember the first time you saw a horse race? Do you remember your first trip to a race track? Wasn't it fun? Granted, you may have seen the money changing hands and thought that you'd like to get a piece of that pie, but you probably also thought that it was a fun way to make money. Only when you started working at learning how to handicap and manage money properly did you realize how much work it is.

Think of how you feel about horse racing handicapping right now and ask yourself if you are looking forward to the challenges of the day or dreading them? Are you merely resigned to another day of struggling to find winners or are you eager to start? I can tell you from personal experience that horse racing handicapping is very difficult and if you aren't passionate about it, you probably won't succeed unless you are very fortunate.

If it is only gambling and the associated thrills that you seek, there are easier ways to take chances. In fact, if you like gambling too much, then you probably would be better off finding some other hobby or job. Admittedly, when you bet you take a chance, but if you make a wager and think to yourself that it is real iffy as to whether or not you win, then you are probably leaning too heavily on luck and not using skill and research as much as professional handicappers use them.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth. Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.


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Sunday, September 4, 2011

One Way to Improve Your Horse Racing Handicapping Right Now

You may have been trying to make money betting on horse races for years or you may have just started betting, but whatever the case may be and no matter how long you've been a horse player, there is always room for improvement. Handicapping races means being aware of ever changing trends, biases, statistics. One thing we all learn is that we have to keep an open mind and be willing to change our opinions and views in order to stay ahead of the crowd.

One of the most important points any horse player can learn is that when using the past performances to predict the future, you can't expect each horse to run the same as it did in its last race. Take a moment to think about that and ask yourself how many times you look at a horse and expect it to register the same speed figure and running style as it did in its last race. Sooner or later, we all fall into that trap.

Because of modern training methods and the rigors of racing, some things have changed over the years. At one time, not long ago, the form cycle was considered the most important factor in picking winners. Trying to figure out how much or how little a horse improved or declined from his or her last race was considered the most important factor in handicapping. There was a time when horses very rarely won on their first or second race after a layoff, but that is no longer the case.

Trainers often bring a horse back to the races today ready to run first time out. Some horses still need a race or two, but many don't. Yet you will still hear people talk about how many days it has been since a horse raced and to quote statistics about "recency." While you may still cling to the idea that a horse needs a few races before being considered a contender, ask yourself how much that idea is costing you.

If enough people still handicap that way, then it is reflected in the odds and means that if you go against that rule, you may get some better payoffs. This is just one example of the one thing you can do right now to instantly improve your handicapping and especially, you're chances of making money betting on horse races. Here is what you must do. Question everything, especially the things that you think are irrefutably true and cannot possibly be wrong. If you believe it, so do many other horse players. Turn the tables and start to think, "outside the box," as they say.

Ask yourself, "If I were to bet on horses regardless of the layoff and recent race factor, would I make more money?" Then start to challenge every other handicapping notion you may have.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth. Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.


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Saturday, September 3, 2011

How Much Do You Really Need to Make on Each Horse Racing Bet to Make a Profit?

Horse racing betting is one of the riskiest ways anyone could possibly try to make money. There are so many variables in each race, there are a lot of things that can go wrong from a gambler's point of view. Therefore, even for the best of handicappers, the possibility of a long losing streak or a bad run of luck is always there. I've known good handicappers who've had a whole season go sour on them.

We often hear that a 10% profit is considered good by professional horse players. In other words, if you make $1,000,000 worth of bets this year, and your profit is $100,000, then many would say you'd done well. Is it therefore reasonable to shoot for a 10% edge on all your bets? Before we answer that, let's talk about a few things that seem to be givens or common knowledge in life.

First and foremost, we all know that life seldom works out exactly the way we have it planned. The old saying is, "Life is what happens while you're making other plans."

There is no other venue on earth where that old saw seems to be truer than in horse racing. You may handicap a program only to have it canceled because of heat or cold or maybe you spend hours handicapping only to have an unexpected shower render the track muddy. Things happen beyond our control, such as a horse coming out of the starting gate and slamming into your horse.

That is just an example of why there is no such thing as a sure bet. In the business world, the profit margin is meant to insure that the investors get their money back along with the profit they have been shooting for. Therefore, the markup above costs is always the profit hoped for plus a little more, because things seldom work out in real life as well as they do on paper.

Therefore, when comparing odds to probability, it is always a good thing to add to the profit percentage. For instance, let's say that you are preparing to wager on a horse that your handicapping and research have shown has a 50% chance of winning. The horse will return $4.40 for the win ticket. You know that since it has a 50% chance of winning, for every $4 you invest, you're going to get your money back plus $.40. That 40 cents profit is 10% of your investment. On paper it sure seems like a good bet.

That will also mean, however, that there is no margin for error or the unknown and unexpected. Those two "uns" can really raise havoc with your plan. Therefore, a more realistic approach would be to only bet on a horse when your expected return is 20%. You may make over 10% profit, and that would be fine, but if anything unforeseen happens, you have a better chance of making that hoped for 10%. Doubling your profit margin expectations to insure that you at least hit your goal is always a good idea in anything as risky as horse racing.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.


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Friday, September 2, 2011

Horse Racing Handicapping and Fear and Loathing, Going Gonzo for Speed

When he wrote his 1970 article, "The Kentucky Derby is Decadent and Depraved," Hunter S. Thompson was writing about the lewd, drunken, drug laced parties in the infield and the culture that seemed to surround horse racing. He spent his time with the partiers in the infield and those who partied for several days before the big event and finally he and Ralph Steadman, who provided sketches for the piece, realized that, we have enemy and it is us. In other words, partying and drinking and using drugs suited the famous writer and originator of Gonzo journalism right down to the soles of his feet.

That may have skewed his vision of horse racing a little because horse racing fans are a mixed bag ranging from the two dollar bettor who is a tee totaler all the way up to the swells in the clubhouse and covering all layers of the social strata. You can't characterize horse players or race goers as drinkers or non drinkers and you can't put a label on them other than to say if you looked through the entire race going, horse betting public, you could probably find just about any kind of person you could imagine and probably a few species that haven't been classified yet.

Unfortunately, as time goes by, we are finding more and more that drugs are playing a bigger and more significant role in the training and conditioning of horses. If Mr. Thompson was following and writing about horse racing today, I'm certain he'd have plenty to say about the drugs being used to enhance the horse's performance and to cheat bettors. That's what it is, by the way. When you do something against the rules or the law in horse racing it is a crime and should be treated as such. Real money is involved and also the public's trust.

It all stems from the Gonzo quest for speed. Like pages numbered and pulled from a notebook, trainers, snatch at this and that trying desperately to win. The idea that horses just need good food, water, exercise and some good handling to become successful race horses has gone the way of the ten cent cigar. It is all based on financial survival and that is because things are skewed, the playing field is not level.

How can good honest horse conditioners compete against the crooks with their juiced up runners? Some trainers confess that they loathe the idea of using performance enhancing drugs, but they fear financial ruin if they don't win. The honest trainers can't fix it. The horse players can't fix it, they can only drop out and go and try to find another game. The only ones who can do anything about this are the authorities and they have to come down hard and fast and that means that when the cheaters are caught they have to be dealt with severely.

Here's an idea, how about treating fraud and theft like the crimes that they are? Instead of a slap on the wrist a lifetime ban and then a trip to criminal court to face charges? It will hurt horse racing at first but when the game is cleaned up we'll stop the hemorrhaging and stop losing horse players. They say there's no such thing as bad publicity and that may be true. Maybe a nationwide campaign to clean up horse racing and lots of headlines about how the industry it getting its act together is just what we need.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.


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The Golden Rule of Horse Racing Handicapping and Betting

What is the golden rule of handicapping? What one thing should every person who has ever placed a bet on a race know? That is a tough question and before I answer it, do yourself a favor and ask yourself, "If a friend asked me for just one piece of information, just one golden rule of horse racing, what would it be?"

Your answer will probably be based on one bad bet or bad beat that you received. Perhaps you bet an exacta straight with a longshot in it and had the exacta come in backwards. The lesson you learned was that you should always box or back up your bet. If a long shot is good enough to come in second at long odds, then it is good enough to win, sometimes. It's those sometimes that get us and make us wonder why we play the races.

Another candidate for GR status is based on a bad move that we have all probably been guilty of at one time or another. It's the old, "Don't try to make up your losses on one big bet at the end of the day." To compound the infraction we also often will bet the favorite figuring it has a better chance to win, right? There is so much money on it, it must be a good horse. That is the worse logic going. The reason it is being pounded by the bettors is because a lot of other players are trying to recoup their losses as well.

The truth of the matter is, some days you are going to lose. Chasing losses with bad bets and lousy decision making only compounds the problem. Unless you have a good bet in the last race and you can get the odds you need, pass the race. There's always fresh (tomorrow).

Yes, "Don't' try to make up your losses with bad bets made out of desperation," is another good candidate for the golden rule.

No article on horse racing's golden rule would be complete without a mention of money management. Money management is the single most important factor in gambling and horse playing success. Now I'm not saying you have to be a cpa or bean counter to survive in this tough game, but you do need a plan and you have to stick to it pretty well or you'll blow any chance of making a profit.

Therefore, perhaps another good one is, "Plan ahead and set limits, and use good money management."

While any one of these suggestions would be good advice for your friend, how about this, there is no absolute golden rule, but you should be aware that it is the situation and race that demands you to use good judgment based on the conditions of the day?

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.


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Thursday, September 1, 2011

The Best Way to Bet on Horse Racing, Finding the Best Bet

If you are trying to make a profit by betting on horse races you have probably already discovered how difficult it really is. Very few people who try to make money wagering on horses ever make a consistent profit. By consistent, I don't mean a daily profit, I don't think anyone has ever done that, but I do mean that over the course of a year, some people do manage to eke out a profit.

Of course, there are people who hit giant mutuels by cashing in on pick sixes and mega superfectas, but those strikes are rare and usually involve a fair amount of luck. Many successful horse players, if they are honest, will admit that their profit for the year came from just one or two big scores. The rest of the time they have just been trading money back and forth with the track waiting for that one big hit.

Making money betting on horse racing isn't the cut and dried affair that some people who sell horse racing systems would have you believe. They make it sound like it is as simple as adding columns of numbers that any bean counting accountant could handle. Real success in this game usually comes from hard work and a storehouse of knowledge that is earned over thousands of hours of study and experience.

Also very important is money management and that is where we finally come to the subject at hand, the best way to bet. Before you place another bet, however, you should make sure that you have a long range plan for your bankroll that will allow you a certain number of losses at whatever you determine as a safe amount to wager on each bet.

While some people think that grinding out a profit on winners and just making straight win bets is the best way to do it, that usually doesn't work as well in practice as in theory. The problem is that as you grind it out, the track is grinding down your bankroll with the vig. Every time you wager, even if you win, you pay the track for the privilege. That adds up over time so finding a bet that costs the least and offers the greatest opportunity for a big hit, should be every handicapper's quest.

Wagers with multiple legs, in other words that cover more than one race, usually have about the same vig, but it is only taken out once, not for each of the legs. That is why many handicappers who used to only bet straight to win now use the pick threes and pick fours and sometimes even the pick six to beat the vig. You not only have to beat the crowd, but more importantly the track.

The best way to land the big "pick," bets is to find a few races with horses that will go off at decent odds and yet still show great promise. If you can narrow your choice down to one or two runners in a race then you can key on that race and wheel more horses in other races. The other races should include some longshots that have at least one factor going for them. These are the kinds of horses that only win once in a while but pay boxcars to win. While betting the longshots to win is financial suicide without a good system, using them in exotics can result in a big score that will make your year.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.


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