Horse Racing Handicapping Long Shot Bets Based on In The Money Percentages

Winning money betting on horses can be thrilling, intoxicating, addicting, and downright dangerous. If you get the bug for cashing bets on horses at long odds you're going to spend a lot of money and probably lose more than you win. That is one of the sad facts about handicapping horse races.

The money that the track takes out of the pools is so high, it is almost impossible to make a profit betting on horses. There are a few people who manage to make more than they lose, but they are the exception to the rule. Therefore, whether you play favorites, mid priced horses, or long shots, you should be cautious and look for the best value you can find.

One way to gauge a horse's ability is to look at how many times it finished in the money, that is first, second, or third. This is especially important in cheap claiming races where the owner is probably spending a lot to race a horse in races where the purses are cheap.

In cheap claiming races, horses that finish in the money often are earning checks for their connections and maybe even paying their own way. These "bread and butter horses," as they are often called, are often very good win bets even if they appear to be over matched by one or two other horses in the race.

The thing you must bear in mind if you're handicapping a claiming race is that these horses didn't make it to the bottom of the claiming ranks by being predictable or holding their form. The horse who has just put in a good performance and appears to be ready to win today could just as easily throw in a clinker and run out of the money. On the other hand, the runner who always seems to find it's way into the trifecta may be the winner today.

Consistency is the rarest of all qualities in cheap races, not speed, class, or pace. That's because consistency and form are both based on soundness and most cheap claimers have a physical problem or two or maybe they just lack athletic ability. Whatever the case may be, horses who can find their way into the money time and again do win occasionally.

Their ability to hold their form and to run competitively is the most important factor and therefore should be considered above speed, pace and all the rest. You will often find them at long odds simply because other horses seem to have more speed or class or the pace scenario seems to be working against them. Ask yourself this question, however, how do they always seem to make it into the money at the end of the race? The answer is obvious, they overcome adversity and that is exactly what makes a good longshot bet.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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A Horse Racing Angle Based on Running Style and Post Position

Winning horse racing bets is tough enough when you have inside information or work very hard at handicapping. Most horse players are always looking for a new angle and a few good bets. While some people evaluate every runner in a race and then determine a morning line for those horses, others just look through the past performances for a few good spot plays.

Whatever your style may be, being aware of what makes a good opportunity in wagering is important if you're ever going to make money betting on horses. The best bet in horse racing is a horse that runs like a favorite and is bet like a long shot. They are so rare, however, that you can wait weeks or even months to find one.

Getting an edge is how a gambler wins, whether it is in a casino, race track, or pitching pennies in a back alley. One angle that gives about as good an edge as anything I've ever found is post position and running style combined. Most players know that horses starting in the post have an advantage in many races.

One of the reasons for that is simple mathematics. Horses starting on the inside and running in what is called the one path have the shortest distance to travel around the track. If they run at the same speed as another horse but have to go a shorter distance, they win. So it isn't all about speed, it's also about position. You can get the post position statistics for different distances at your favorite track and start to add them to your regular handicapping.

If you really want to use those stats to your best advantage, however, you'll also dig a little deeper to see why horses win from those posts and how. When I say how, I mean, what running style wins? You will find, especially in the case of inside horses, that is horses starting in the one post or near the rail, that it is early speed that makes the difference, not just the post.

In fact, a slow starter that starts on the rail may often be at a disadvantage because it will have other runners cross over in front of it and will have to find a way through those horses or around them when it comes time to make a move for the finish line.

Now how do we combine running style and post position to give you the edge? Let's say that horses starting on the rail or one post in mile races at your favorite track are winning at a 22% clip. That isn't uncommon and once in a while is even higher. This includes harness races especially those on half mile tracks.

Let's also say that you keep accurate records and find out that most of those winners had good early speed. Now you can eliminate horses that are slow out of the gate, the ones that won't benefit from the post position and may even be at a disadvantage. Once you eliminate those horses, the winning percentage may go even higher. Depending upon how many slow starters break from that post, your actual win percentage may go up over 30%, just by eliminating horses whose running style doesn't fit the pattern.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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Horse Racing Betting Strategy Based on Probability and Bankroll

Every horse player should use a system for evaluating the runners and also for evaluating the bets, or odds. One is based on the other and they work together to form the basis of a betting strategy with two goals.

1. Preserve your bankroll

2. Make a profit

While it may appear simple on the surface or at first glance, it is devilishly difficult to reconcile probability with price because the market, as I often refer to the wagering pools is very good at adjusting itself. If there was no takeout, otherwise known as the vig, then breaking even would not be difficult and actually making a profit would be within the reach of more people. Unfortunately for the bettors, however, the piper must be paid and the vig is the bane of a horse player's existence.

The best wagering strategy then should be one that makes wagers in small enough increments, or units to withstand the ravages of a very volatile market as well as returning a profit above and beyond the actual money wagered.

The process of finding the best horse racing bets starts with a handicapping method that uses the major factors of horse racing to determine how likely each runner may be to find the winner's circle. In mathematical terms, the melding of these factors after weighting each one, is known as an algorithm. Your job as an investor is to find the horse racing system with the best algorithm for the particular track and races that you are playing.

Your next step is to assign odds to each horse that will become your value line. If you start with break even odds and then add what you feel is your least amount of profit to the odds, you will arrive at your own limit. For instance, if horse A has a 50% chance of winning the race, then the break even amount to bet on that horse would be even money or 1-1. But if you need to make a profit of 20% in order to make the bet attractive then you must add that to the wagering amount. If you need to wager $2 to make $4 back and must add 20% to that your new wager limit becomes a payoff of $4.80.

For every $4 that you wager you will get a return of $4.80 and that will be a profit of 80 cents on every successful wager. Remember, your winning wagers also include the price of your losing wagers when determining your profit margin and costs.

So a simple way to express this strategy is...

Pr(profit) = W (minimum wager) / P (probability) x PM (profit margin)

.80 = $2/.50 x.20

The critical parts of this strategy are first of all to accurately evaluate and determine each runner's chances of winning and secondly to watch the tote board and find the runner that will return a profit based on the odds and expected probability.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

View the original article here