Should One Perform a Post Mortem After a Day at the Races?

So what is the answer? Yes and no.

If you are in system development mode very little will develop your system as quickly as doing a postmortem on every horse race. However, the post-race analysis should be done immediately following the race, while it is still fresh in your mind.

The best way to do this is to get yourself what I call a "decision notebook." That notebook is used to record each race's results and commentary. The commentary should be divided into two columns: positive and negative. If you prefer you could call these columns right and wrong.

What you write in each column is a simple, one sentence description of what you got right and/or what you got wrong. You should emphasize only those right or wrong points that resulted in either winning or losing the race.

The strength of the decision notebook lies in formulating your potential answers ahead of time. You do this by forming good questions. For example, suppose you want to know if your top early speed (ES) horse is really getting to the front. You might formulate a question like this: "early speed (ES) went to the front?"

Then, as you go through each race, all of your answers should relate directly to this question. For example, if your ES horse went to the front immediately and won, paying $16.80, your comment might be "ES1 w2w."

If your ES horse did not go to the front but the first call leader won the race in wire-to-wire fashion, your comment might read "Wrong ES1."

If the winner of the race was not the horse that took the lead at the first call, then it does not matter which course you pick to be ES1. Therefore, there should be no comment relating to ES.

At some point in your study, you will be capable of going back and tallying up all your answers:

ES1 w2w = 12

Wrong ES1 = 8

In this way, you are ultimately able to say, "My early speed process works 60% of the time."

Whatever method you decide to use it is important to keep track of your successes and failures. You definitely need to have some process for recording and tracking your results directly after a race, especially if you are still in the beginning stages of developing your system. Remember, the excitement at the horse races can be intense, but to be a successful horse race handicapper you need to be systematical.

Over the years, Dave Schwartz has written many different artificial intelligence approaches to handicapping. Schwartz software programs help handicappers of all levels to get an edge in horse handicapping. For horse handicapping tips and more information on the products that Schwartz has developed, visit: The Horse Handicapping Authority Website

If you would like to interact with Dave and to learn more about the world of horse race handicapping you can visit: Dave Schwartz Horse Handicapping Blog

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Remember That Horse Racing Handicapping Should Be Fun

Money is on the minds of most people when they handicap horse races and make bets. In fact, for many of us, getting money and using it as wisely as we can is the thing on which we spend the most effort and time. While shirt sleeve philosophers point out that money can't bring happiness and the things in life that are most important aren't things at all, poverty usually means that the pursuit of happiness will be on a back burner until prosperity is back on her perch.

In other words, it's about the money. That doesn't mean that it should be drudgery, though, and horse racing handicapping can be an intellectual sport that you enjoy. In fact, the more you enjoy it the more likely you are to stay fresh, keep an open mind, and win. Therefore, though you may have a handicapping system that you try to stick to or a routine that seems to work or almost work, don't get stuck in a rut.

Do you remember the first time you saw a horse race? Do you remember your first trip to a race track? Wasn't it fun? Granted, you may have seen the money changing hands and thought that you'd like to get a piece of that pie, but you probably also thought that it was a fun way to make money. Only when you started working at learning how to handicap and manage money properly did you realize how much work it is.

Think of how you feel about horse racing handicapping right now and ask yourself if you are looking forward to the challenges of the day or dreading them? Are you merely resigned to another day of struggling to find winners or are you eager to start? I can tell you from personal experience that horse racing handicapping is very difficult and if you aren't passionate about it, you probably won't succeed unless you are very fortunate.

If it is only gambling and the associated thrills that you seek, there are easier ways to take chances. In fact, if you like gambling too much, then you probably would be better off finding some other hobby or job. Admittedly, when you bet you take a chance, but if you make a wager and think to yourself that it is real iffy as to whether or not you win, then you are probably leaning too heavily on luck and not using skill and research as much as professional handicappers use them.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth. Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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The Top Three Horse Racing Handicapping Mistakes You Should Never Make

One of the biggest challenges that most people face when they handicap horse races and try to make a profit is overcoming the vig. In plain English, it is almost impossible to make a profit because you have to pay so much for the privilege of being able to make a bet on a horse race. Therefore, the profit margin does not allow for making even one mistake that can be avoided because that one mistake can mean the difference between success or failure.

While no one is perfect and we each will make the occasional blunder, making errors that could easily be avoided will not only bankrupt you, but also cause you unnecessary frustration and pain. Therefore, let's look at three mistakes that many horse players make.

First and foremost is the lack of planning. Think of a trip to the races or OTB as a financial campaign or even a war or battle, even if it is only a skirmish behind enemy lines. There is probably no other time in your life when you would spend money with little thought or planning and expect to make money, but that is exactly what many people do when they bet on horse races. While luck is a factor, for most it is fleeting and an unknown quantity, so plan and write it down and don't depend on luck.

When I say write it down, I mean write down how much money you start with and a reasonable total for how much you'd like to make for the day. Then write down the names of horses you are following or ones that you feel might be a good bet and write the reason down as well. Whether you win or lose, write down the outcome and whether you wagered on each one and the reasons. Keep your entire day's activities on one sheet of paper and after the day is over put it in a safe place. After you've accumulated a good collection of the daily sheets, review them. You may learn a lot including how to improve your horse racing betting.

Speaking of betting, do you sometimes bet on longshots? If you bet on horses in a wide range of odds, maybe a longshot here, a favorite there, perhaps a mid range odds horse now and then, bet the same amounts on each one. If a horse is worth a bet, it's worth a bet, and if it's worth a bet, in your opinion, then it could win. Granted longshots don't win as often, but when they do, they pay well. You may make as much on longshots as favorites, but you'll have to bet enough to make it pay.

Finally, don't spread yourself too thin. I started going to the races decades ago when you went to the race track and there was only the one track and races to bet on. There was no such thing as simulcasting. You played whatever was available at your local track. That usually meant that most people who attended regularly enough became experts when it came to knowledge of their local track. Can you say that you have enough knowledge of the players and biases and trends at any track to be considered an expert?

If you can't it is probably because, like many people in the age of simulcasting, you wager on many tracks and try to handicap them all. Consequently you become, "a jack of all tracks and master of none." Narrow down your focus and you may win more and lose less.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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Which Horse Should I Key In a Trifecta Bet?

Hitting a big trifecta is a great thrill and certainly good for the old bankroll as long as you don't spend more to hit it than you make on the payoff. The problem is that hitting that big tri is no easy task. If you use long priced horses as your main interest then you will miss quite a few wagers.

As your total losses add up you realize that the big score is thrilling but the long wait between hits is not for the weak hearted or impatient bettor. Switching your focus to short priced horses or even, heavens forbid, favorites, will result in more wins, but as we all know exotic bets with the favorite usually don't pay well and once again, your cost to buy your tickets will probably outweigh your winnings.

Let's take a closer look at how people wager to get a better idea of what might possibly be a profitable betting strategy. First of all, generally speaking, what is true of the win pools is also true of the exotic pools. The way handicappers wager on horses in the straight pools is how they usually wager in the exotics. In fact, many people who are casual players will look at the odds on the tote board in order to choose runners for their trifecta and superfecta bets.

Studies have shown that their are two betting interests that are usually over bet. I would go one step farther and add that they are also used too often in exotics and therefore it is hard to find good value if you key on them. I am talking about long shots and favorites. If you want horses that are more fairly priced and valued closer to their true odds based on the probability of placing in the top three, look for middle priced horses.

I'm not saying that you should never play a longshot or chalk (favorite), but I am saying, that most of your focus should be on those horses that fall into the sweet spot somewhere between. For instance, in a race where the favorite is at 6-5 odds it is tempting to key that one on top over a few longshots. It seems that the chalk is the most likely winner, which it is, and it also seems that those long shots do have a possibility of hitting the board and therefore creating a good payoff in spite of the favorite prevailing.

Half of that logic is correct. The long priced horses do have a chance, albeit a slight one, of completing the trifecta, however, you are not the only one to make that assumption. Remember that those long priced horses are often over bet even though they are at long odds. A more realistic bet with value in mind might be to key one of the mid priced horses over the favorite over a few other mid priced horses with a long shot or two to round out the field.

Pay particular attention to horses that are in the range of 3-1 to 8-1 if you want to make money betting on horses and playing trifectas. They are overlooked by the favorites players and eschewed by the long shot Louies and Louisas.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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