Jockey Switches Can Signal a Win or Loss Depending On These Handicapping Factors

One of the most confusing factors horse racing handicappers have to deal with is when a jockey gets off one horse to ride another. What does is mean? First of all, how good is the rider who got off the mount and how good is the new one? That will tell you a lot.

Secondly, what experience has the new rider had with the horse? While we're on the subject of experience, what is the jockey trainer combo winning percentage? Yes it is tricky and that's why so many would-be horse players struggle with it.

The subject of horse racing handicapping is a complicated and risky business. There are no black and white, yes or no answers to these questions. The obvious answer, however, is often the right one. For instance, if the jockey who got off the horse has a far better win average than the new reinsman, then it is a pretty good bet that he or she has chosen a better horse and has given up on the other mount.

Winning riders get those high percentages and win riding titles at race tracks because they or their agent can spot a good mount and can also pick the better of the two when given a choice. Therefore, using the other handicapping factors of speed, class, pace, and recent form, which of the two mounts looks better, more likely to win?

If your handicapping picks the same horse the top jockey chose, then you are probably correct. Experience has taught me that when it comes to a choice between two horses, most jockeys do choose the right one. On the other hand, and here is where this all gets so tricky, you have to shop for value in your bets if you are going to make a profit betting on horses.

The rest of the horse players will also notice the switch and will probably lay off the horse that was abandoned by the better jockey. That means the odds will be higher, perhaps producing an overlay, on the horse that was left behind. Using your best handicapping skills, ask yourself what the horse should go off at and then increase it by at least 25%. Why increase your line on the horse? Because there may very well be something that the jockey knows about that horse that you don't know.

In almost all of these situations, even using your best handicapping and taking into consideration the odds offered, you will find the horse is not a good bet and should be left alone.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

View the original article here

Jockey Changes Can Signal a Change in the Horse for Smart Handicappers

The most significant piece of equipment any race horse carries is the jockey. Blinkers and tongue ties may make a big difference, but when it is all said and done, the rider who pilots the horse and makes crucial decisions in a split second is the biggest key to success. Most past performances list equipment changes, though they still don't tell us about tongue ties, but which one notes a change in rider? You have to look for those yourself.

When a different jockey will be in the irons the astute handicapper makes a note of it and tries to figure out what that means to the performance of the horse and the sharpest horse players know it isn't all about jockey win percentages. There may be many reasons for a change and the most significant one is that the horse may have improved or declined since its last race.

That is what you really need to think about and question when you see the regular rider is off. The first thing to check is whether that new rider is one of the trainer's go-to riders. If a generic reinsman gets off and a rider with a high win percent for that conditioner gets on, that is a very positive sign. Does it signal an instant win? Certainly not.

There may be several reasons why a trainer will ask his or her favorite jock to get on a horse. Maybe the conditioner wants the rider's opinion about the animal or wants to try something different. It may also mean that the former rider decided he or she had enough and there is another mount that has a better chance of winning that is available. I think the best way to describe the often baffling business of musical riders is that there are wheels within wheels and you may never be able to figure out just why the rider switch occurred.

One way to find a clue as to the jockey switch is to check the recent works. Do you see an improvement? Is there an equipment change today? Let's say the trainer tried blinkers on the horse and got a much better workout time from it, that may be why a better jockey has been given the mount today.

If there is a suspicious lack of workouts, however, and a leading rider gets off the horse, it may signal a decline or even a physical problem such as lameness. If you are of a conspiratorial mindset, you might suspect that a lesser known jockey will keep the odds higher on the horse and that is why a no-name jockey has climbed aboard, but in my experience, things are seldom that murky in the world of training horses. The conditioners are pretty straightforward with their moves and if you take the time to learn a little about horse training, you'll usually be able to figure out the reasons for equipment changes or jockey switches.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

View the original article here