Trainer Moves Must Be Weighed Against The Competition When Handicapping

We've all seen the helpful information that most past performances now supply us with regarding trainer moves. They may say something like, "Dropping in class....28% ROI +3.80." In other words, when that trainer drops his horse in class they win at a 28% clip and produce a positive return on investment of $3.80. Wonderful, it is an instant bet and all you have to do is to go wait in line in preparation to getting paid, right? Wrong.

Just flat betting horses to win that have a positive ROI according to the purveyors of past performances is a one way ticket to the poor farm. How can that be? Because that is past information and as soon as the punters see those kinds of statistics they jump on the horse like fleas on a hound. They bet the horse down below fair value odds so it becomes a losing bet.

In other words, once the cat is out of the bag it is virtually impossible to make a profit on good trainer moves. So what then is the alternative? How about bad trainer moves? How about trainer moves that have a low win percentage and a lousy ROI? Is this crazy talk? Have I been sniffing the "white out" again? No, to all of the above.

There are times when you should bet on a horse even though the trainer moves seem to indicate that it is a poor proposition. Let's face it, if all you had to do to make money betting on horses was to read the trainer stats at the bottom of the horse's lines, we'd all be rich. Horse racing handicapping is not that simple. Most of the time you will make money going against the crowd, going against conventional wisdom, and doing things that seem wrong.

When you see that a trainer has only won 5% of the time with her first time starters and she has a first time starter in the race, should you throw the horse out of your calculations? Absolutely not. If anything, the crowd will read that and they will throw it out. You want to beat them not join them. How do you beat them? By taking the road less traveled. That horse may well be a good bet after all.

It depends upon how good the other horses are. Is there a standout horse in the race? If not, then why not take a shot on a real flyer. Long shot bets are where the money is and going against the crowd is how you find them. That 5% may not be very impressive, but ask yourself this, can this trainer win with a first time starter? The answer is yes, she can and she has proven it.

Then look at the odds and ask yourself if it pays enough to take a chance. You may not win often like this, but when you do it will pay very nicely. The only way you will ever make a profit at betting on horses is by going against the crowd and avoiding those trainer moves that supposedly show a profit.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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Joe Taylor: Horse Trainer, Punter and Gentleman

Joe Taylor was born in Sydney in 1908 to Edmund Barton Taylor, who earned his keep as a hotel cellarman, and Norah Catherine Killalea.

Taylor first took up boxing as a young man, played Rugby league, and filled in as a bill poster before advancing to management of boxers and Rugby League teams.

In 1932, he married Edith Anne May Johnson at St. Pius's Catholic Church in Enmore. That union persisted for 8 years, producing a son prior to a divorce in 1944. If asked at this stage, he would claim the occupations of bookmaker and shipwright.

Less than a month after, he married again to Elizabeth Watson. That lady produced two daughters before she died and left Taylor a widower.

Taylor's passion in life was gambling and those early years often saw him leaving his wages for the week at the track.

The period of WWII had Taylor involved with Thommo's two-up school, essentially a series of illegal card games that was initiated by George Guest in 1910 and operated for many years in Sydney. Taylor supplemented this with some baccarat schools.

Taylor brought Rose's Restaurant back to life in 1949, christening it the Celebrity Restaurant Club. It was wildly popular with the racing set, especially during the 50s and 60s, and featured top shelf entertainment imported from, among other places, America.

In 1954, he expanded by opening the Carlisle Club in Kings Cross which also proved a hit. History states that there were illicit gaming facilities on the premises of his clubs, but a sanguine perspective would offer that this was just a case of a business trying to please its clientele. That same year, he assumed control of Thommo's following the death of George Guest.

As a punter, Taylor wagered with everyone's favourite commodity: Cash. He used his employees as agents to place his bets, and enjoyed substantial success on his own horses to the extent that other bookies opened his horses lower. This did not prevent Taylor from turning a profit, however, and Taylor was his own man when the subject of buying horses arose.

Trainers of note that prepped Taylor's horses for him were Reg Farris, senior and junior, as well as Albert Woods and Kevin Hayes.

Taylor gambled at cards and wagered on the dish lickers as well. He was considered a "magnificent, if unflamboyant," gambler, and had the unique attitude that "money is nothing but betting ammunition," and was more a source of pleasure than an end to itself. Big Bill Waterhouse is quoted as saying Taylor was "one of the few men in the world who completely doesn't give a damn about money."

Nowhere was this attitude more apparent than on the day that Taylor experienced his greatest racing triumph, a 1962 STC Golden Slipper Stakes win for his horse Birthday Card. He is reputed to have given most of his winnings, thousands in fact, to his mates, and lost the rest when another of his horses finished dead last in the last race of the day.

A modern day Robin Hood such as Taylor is often known by the company he keeps and Taylor enjoyed some notoriety via his association with personalities such as Jack Davey and State premier Sir Robert Askin. He was also associated with Ezra Norton, publisher of the Sydney Daily Mirror and owner of the 1957 Melbourne Cup winner Straight Draw.

Less savory, perhaps, acquaintances included confederates from the illegal gambling community, namely Len McPherson, Fred Anderson and Perce Galea.

Taylor seemed also to possess connections with the law enforcement establishment because police raids designed to topple the illegal gambling operations never quite seemed effective in closing the shop.

In 1971, at the age of 63 Taylor married for a third time, marrying a 46-year-old secretary, Patricia Moffit, listing his occupation as restaurateur. Five years later, he died from a heart attack. He is survived by the son from his first marriage and the daughters from his second.

Taylor's legacy to the sport of punting will forever be that he knew his horses, honoured his debts, dealt in cash, and most importantly, did it with grand style and few enemies.

To read more about Australian Horse Racing, Jockeys Premiership, Horse Racing Tips Australia, Bookmakers, Racecourses and more, go to Pro Group Racing and receive your free E-Book on How to Win at Horse Racing. ==>View here all the Australian Bookmakers

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Using Trainer Moves and Habits to Handicap Horse Races and Find Winners

Horse racing winners come in all kinds of shapes and sizes, well at least the trainers who win do. They may use many different paths to get to the winners circle, but one thing they all have in common is that they beat every other trainer's horse in the race. You may have a hall of fame trainer whose horse gets beaten by a trainer who wins at a dismal 7% rate, but in that particular race, the low percentage trainer came out on top.

While betting trainers who rarely win may not be a sound financial strategy, unless their winners pay very big mutuels, it is important to note that all trainers, sooner or later, make it to the winners circle. Your ability to make money by betting on horse races will relate directly to how well you equate a horse, and consequently its trainer's ability to win a race, to the odds being offered. That, in a nutshell, is the whole profit equation in horse racing betting.

Successful, high profile trainers rarely produce profitable bets when you back all their runners. You have to find the right horse in the right situation, just as in any handicapping situation. The suppliers of past performances often supply the win percentage and ROI (return on investment) for obvious trainer moves such as blinkers on, second race off the layoff, drop in class.

While this information is helpful, I've rarely made money when trying to stick to what they tout as profitable trainer moves. Why is that? Because once it is touted, when the stable cat is out of the bag, so to speak, handicappers bet the daylights out of it and it no longer makes money. Therefore, the idea of playing trainer moves to make money only really becomes a profitable one if you can get the right odds on a horse, or better yet, if you can find trainer moves that have surfaced yet.

That is obviously just about impossible unless you know the trainer and he or she tells you that something new is in the works. Therefore, from a handicapping and profit stand point, the best trainer moves are new ones, not the habitual ones that everybody and his brother or sister knows about. Your job as a handicapper isn't to look for old trainer moves and then to bet them when they show a positive ROI.

What you really should be doing is to find a trainer who is trying something different. He or she may or may not be successful at it, but if he or she has had success in the past then there may be a way to make this new move work and you will be in on the ground floor. You'll have o dig to find these moves, though, because they won't be neatly listed in the form with a win percentage and ROI figure beside them.

The way to do this is to familiarize yourself with a few young-ish trainers and watch them closely. When you see one doing something he or she hasn't tried or has done only once in a long while, then see if you can get decent odds on the horse and if through your handicapping you can see any way for the runner to win. Outside the box is where you will find the big payoffs and the next profitable trainer moves. As for trainer habits that were profitable in the past, drop them like a... well, like a bad habit.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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