Picking Winners and Handicapping Horse Races Using Public Handicappers

Have you ever followed the public handicappers who put their picks in the newspaper or who work for the race track? You may find that some of them go on streaks and sometimes actually do quite well at finding winners. Of course, it is almost impossible for them to show a profit because they have to pick horses in every race. Playing every race and making a profit is about impossible. The best handicappers in the world pick their spots carefully and pass a lot of races.

But you as a horse player can do the same thing, so you don't have to play every horse that the public "cappers," pick. Think of that and the implications. You can follow them and determine where their strengths and weaknesses are. There is one that I can think of who handicaps the New York circuit and who is good at spotting live two year olds. He doesn't hit a lot of winners but has some very mice longshot bets in maiden races and shows a profit overall.

That is the kind of information that you can use and save yourself some time digging through the past performances. First of all, however, you have to determine just where the public capper's strength lies and then exploit it. You do that by printing out his or her picks and then getting the results and comparing them along with the payoffs.

The important thing is to note the kinds of race and the conditions. For instance, if it is a race for 3 year olds or 2 year olds, that is significant. The length of the race and surface is important, too. Keep track of all these things and start looking for patterns or long shot winners.

Obviously a winner here or there isn't a pattern, but if you watch him or her over a period of three or four months and he or she hits a high percentage of winners or enough long shots to show a profit, then you've found an easy way to find good bets. While the handicapper may not tell you which races are actually profitable for him or her, you will know.

It is interesting to note that after following public handicappers for months and seeing that some actually show a profit in certain kinds of races, like the example of the NY handicapper, even though some have a kind of race where they excel, many times, they don't identify them as their "best bets." For instance, handicapper A may show an overall profit in maiden races but when he or she picks his or her best bet of the day, it is in an allowance race.

That shouldn't bother you, however if you know that the real best bet is in another race and you use that information to identify your own best bet of the day.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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Where To Find Most Winners When Handicapping Horse Races

After the race it is so much easier to find the winner and why it won than it is before the race. By looking at one hundred races and noting which horses won and why, you'd think anyone would soon be able to pick winners like a pro. Such is not the case, however, and handicapping horse races remains one of those difficult things that appears so simple at first glance.

Some horse racing handicappers try to narrow it down by using statistics. The most well known and over used statistic regarding winners at the horse races is the knowledge that the favorites win approximately one third of the races. Anyone who attends the races and tries betting on favorites as a way of making money betting on horses quickly learns, however, that it just doesn't pay. They are almost always a poor bet because so many people wager on them.

If a runner at 9-5 odds has a 33% chance of winning, then you will receive $5.60 for every $6.00 wagered on horses at those odds. Though the actual winning percentage may go up or down according to the odds, there is rarely a time when a favorite will pay enough to offset the cost of wagering. Even extremely popular favorites at odds of less than even money are often a losing bet.

So what odds and percentages and where in the betting order should we shop for winners that will pay enough to make a profit? That is a question that number crunchers and professional handicappers try to answer every day. Supposedly, a long time ago, Dutch Shultz, the infamous gangster, with the help of his accountant, figured out that certain horses were overlays and they could bet on more than one horse and still make a profit.

Though it was the golden age of horse racing wagering and odds were still crude and it was possible to find good bets based on the odds of winning. Dutch figured out that the favorite won a third of the time and the second favorite won 20% of the time. He also figured out the odds of winning for the top five horses in the odds. Horses beyond the top five won so rarely that he concentrated his efforts on those runners and watched the odds.

When he found an overlay based on the expected win percentage, he bet the horse and cleaned up. Before you rush out the door to try that how, however, be warned, it doesn't work as well any more. We no longer bet with bookies and pari-mutuel wagering has trimmed the fat from the pools making it much more difficult to win. However, the odds of each of the top five horses winning still holds true today, though it varies a little from track to track and season to season.

Roughly 80% of all winners come from the top five betting choices. As I said, it may vary a little but overall, that is where you will find most of the winners so that is probably where most of your betting should take place unless you are specifically playing long shots and have a good method of finding horses that are overlooked by the crowd.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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Looking for Winners at the Horse Races

When you go to the horse races you'll see many people pouring over the past performances and programs. If you ask them what they are doing each one will probably explain that they are looking for a winner. While it may be true that the past performances can help you to find winners, the lines that indicate how a horse raced before are only part of the story. There is some much more important information right in front of you before the race that you should use.

Whether you have the luxury of being at the race track, or you're only watching the races on a television monitor or even if you're watching them on your computer, looking at the horses is an important step in handicapping. While most of us horse players love to bet on horses, many of us like to just look at horses, after all, they're beautiful and amazing animals. The sensual treat of looking at them, however, can also have benefits beyond the aesthetic.

Horses, as you're well aware, are living breathing creatures who are subject to change from week to week and day to day. Nothing stays the same on this earth. For instance, you may see your friend, Charlie at the races one day and he looks great, his face creased with a broad smile. The next day that you see Charlie, he may be frowning and walking slowly. When you ask what is wrong, Charlie may tell you he isn't feeling well, just not his usual self.

If all you had to go on was Charlie's condition the last time you saw him, you'd say he was in the pink, but things have changed. The same may be true of the runners in a race. That 8 to 5 favorite may have been in fine health and ran a great race a week ago, but how is it feeling today? Just because the track vet cleared it to run today, it doesn't mean that it is feeling fun of run and ready to win again. Horses can't speak in words, but they're body language can tell you a lot.

Therefore, after you do your handicapping and before you bet, look at the horses. As soon as you can, view them in the saddling ring and paddock. Then watch them when they are paraded out to the track. Look them over closely in the post parade. Odds and past performances notwithstanding, which one would you bet based on looks alone? Is the favorite looking good? Is it animated or does it seem rather flat and lackluster?

You can find important clues just by looking the runners over and noting which ones, of the top three or four in your handicapping, look the best. Just remember when you read those lines in the program or form, that was then and this is now. You are betting now, today, not then. A lot can change and that is why favorites lose more than they win.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth. Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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Ratios for Horse Racing Handicapping and Picking Winners

Many people are aware of the factors used to handicap a horse race, but how many know just how important each factor may be? Do you know if class or speed is more important in that turf race you are now handicapping? Is early speed the most important consideration in that dirt sprint? Knowing how the factors relate to each other will help you to pick more winners.

Some people call it weighing the factors. The most important aspect of the race gets the most weight. If may be expressed as a percentage or as a simple number such as Speed +1.43. Obviously, even though class, speed, or other considerations may seem to matter more, we can't disregard the other things that make handicapping the challenge that it is.

A lot of times, the way to determine which one of the many statistics and bits of data you are analyzing is the strongest is to look for the differences between the runners. For instance, if you have a maiden claiming race where the top three contenders have the following average speed figures, A=78, B=77, and C=75, you have three horses who are closely matched for speed.

If your research has shown that speed is usually the most important factor in handicapping maidens, then you might assume that A has a slight advantage over B who has a bigger advantage over C. But there is more to it than that, because B is dropping out of the Maiden Special Weight ranks into a mid-class maiden claimer. That gives B a big class advantage. In this case, though speed is usually the first consideration, the class drop is now determines who your top pick will be.

Comparing one number to another and looking at it as a fraction or ratio is one way to see just how big the difference, or advantage may be. For speed we have 78/77 but for class, using the purse, we have $45,000/28,000. Now the difference becomes quite clear. While we still have to consider other handicapping tools, ratios will help you to make the many comparisons that make horse racing handicapping so challenging and potentially profitable.

There are several ways to use this information. First of all, you can determine what the most important factor is in any class of race just by looking at the winners of past races and comparing their speed, class, pace, and connections to the other horses who ran against them. Secondly, you can create a fraction or ratio for comparing the attributes of the horses in a given race.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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Using Trainer Moves and Habits to Handicap Horse Races and Find Winners

Horse racing winners come in all kinds of shapes and sizes, well at least the trainers who win do. They may use many different paths to get to the winners circle, but one thing they all have in common is that they beat every other trainer's horse in the race. You may have a hall of fame trainer whose horse gets beaten by a trainer who wins at a dismal 7% rate, but in that particular race, the low percentage trainer came out on top.

While betting trainers who rarely win may not be a sound financial strategy, unless their winners pay very big mutuels, it is important to note that all trainers, sooner or later, make it to the winners circle. Your ability to make money by betting on horse races will relate directly to how well you equate a horse, and consequently its trainer's ability to win a race, to the odds being offered. That, in a nutshell, is the whole profit equation in horse racing betting.

Successful, high profile trainers rarely produce profitable bets when you back all their runners. You have to find the right horse in the right situation, just as in any handicapping situation. The suppliers of past performances often supply the win percentage and ROI (return on investment) for obvious trainer moves such as blinkers on, second race off the layoff, drop in class.

While this information is helpful, I've rarely made money when trying to stick to what they tout as profitable trainer moves. Why is that? Because once it is touted, when the stable cat is out of the bag, so to speak, handicappers bet the daylights out of it and it no longer makes money. Therefore, the idea of playing trainer moves to make money only really becomes a profitable one if you can get the right odds on a horse, or better yet, if you can find trainer moves that have surfaced yet.

That is obviously just about impossible unless you know the trainer and he or she tells you that something new is in the works. Therefore, from a handicapping and profit stand point, the best trainer moves are new ones, not the habitual ones that everybody and his brother or sister knows about. Your job as a handicapper isn't to look for old trainer moves and then to bet them when they show a positive ROI.

What you really should be doing is to find a trainer who is trying something different. He or she may or may not be successful at it, but if he or she has had success in the past then there may be a way to make this new move work and you will be in on the ground floor. You'll have o dig to find these moves, though, because they won't be neatly listed in the form with a win percentage and ROI figure beside them.

The way to do this is to familiarize yourself with a few young-ish trainers and watch them closely. When you see one doing something he or she hasn't tried or has done only once in a long while, then see if you can get decent odds on the horse and if through your handicapping you can see any way for the runner to win. Outside the box is where you will find the big payoffs and the next profitable trainer moves. As for trainer habits that were profitable in the past, drop them like a... well, like a bad habit.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

View the original article here