When handicapping horse races a lot of time is spent in evaluating each of several factors. Unfortunately, many times we fail to see the big picture because we don't put the factors together in order to see a big picture. In other words, we fail to connect the dots.
Workout times can tell quite a story about a horse's conditioning and readiness to win, especially when they are used in conjunction with other data that is available in the past performances or in the racing program. One big change that is usually considered when handicapping horse races is the jockey switch.
When a jockey gets off a mount it is a big deal and many bettors want to know why the rider left the mount. They also compare one rider to the other to determine if it will improve the runner's chances of winning. In the case of an apprentice getting on a horse, the reasoning of the trainer is pretty obvious. The conditioner wanted the horse to have the advantage of carrying less weight than the other runners since apprentices get a weight allowance.
But what is the reason for a good jockey getting on or off a horse? Does it mean the horse is improving? Has the jockey's agent spotted something? Or is the rider simply getting paid to ride the horse and is going to get some air? Looking at the horse in the post parade may help you to determine if it has improved, but there is another way to check on the runner.
Look at the workouts and see what they can tell you. There are several things you should look for. First of all, there are the actual times of the morning works. Have they gotten faster? Do you see an improvement in time that would tell you that the runner is getting faster and in better racing shape? If so and a better jockey is getting on the horse, that may be a very positive sign.
On the other hand, even if the times don't improve, a change in the frequency may mean the runner is being pushed more to get it into shape. It may also mean that the animal is getting fit and ready. Finally, it may be that there was a physical problem that has been overcome, such as lameness and now it is capable of working more often and therefore will be more competitive in its next race.
If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.
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