Hitting trifectas and cashing big tickets is one of the great joys of horse racing handicapping. It is also very difficult and potentially expensive. Missing too many bets when trying to win a trifecta is one of the best ways to lose your bankroll and wind up in the poor house. That's why many "tri" players try to find consistent horses to use in their wagers.
Some people add up the number of times a horse has finished in the money for the year and divide it by the total number of races in order to get a consistency rating based on a percentage. For instance, if a horse has finished in the money, first, second, or third 8 times and has raced 16 times this year, it has been in the money (ITM) 50% of the time.
Finding the runners in the race with the highest ITM% is one way to build a tri wager. Some players then box them and figure they've covered the most logical choices and therefore have the best chance of winning. Unfortunately for them, that isn't how it works in real life. For one thing, any handicapping done with past performances, which is how most of us look at the races, is done by looking in the past and trying to project into the future.
It doesn't matter whether you are handicapping the races or the stock market, anyone who has tried this method of using the past to prognosticate knows that it is risky and difficult. On the other hand, what else is there? The problem with using an ITM% based on the total number of races for the year is that the form cycle affects in the money finishes.
Naturally, when a horse is returning after a lay off and rest it may take a few races to get back into mid season form. Therefore, it may finish out of the money. On the other hand, if a horse is in mid season form, at the peak of the form cycle, you would expect it to have a very good chance of finishing in the money, perhaps even winning.
It's okay to divide ITM finishes into the total number of races for the year, but before you use that figure, ask yourself if the runner is at its peak, getting better, or getting worse. If you have a choice between a horse with about 50% ITM finishes who has been racing a lot, maybe too much and a horse with a 40% ITM, but who is just starting to get into shape, the latter of the two may be the better horse to include in your trifecta box or wheel bet.
If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.
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