Horse racing betting is one of the riskiest ways anyone could possibly try to make money. There are so many variables in each race, there are a lot of things that can go wrong from a gambler's point of view. Therefore, even for the best of handicappers, the possibility of a long losing streak or a bad run of luck is always there. I've known good handicappers who've had a whole season go sour on them.
We often hear that a 10% profit is considered good by professional horse players. In other words, if you make $1,000,000 worth of bets this year, and your profit is $100,000, then many would say you'd done well. Is it therefore reasonable to shoot for a 10% edge on all your bets? Before we answer that, let's talk about a few things that seem to be givens or common knowledge in life.
First and foremost, we all know that life seldom works out exactly the way we have it planned. The old saying is, "Life is what happens while you're making other plans."
There is no other venue on earth where that old saw seems to be truer than in horse racing. You may handicap a program only to have it canceled because of heat or cold or maybe you spend hours handicapping only to have an unexpected shower render the track muddy. Things happen beyond our control, such as a horse coming out of the starting gate and slamming into your horse.
That is just an example of why there is no such thing as a sure bet. In the business world, the profit margin is meant to insure that the investors get their money back along with the profit they have been shooting for. Therefore, the markup above costs is always the profit hoped for plus a little more, because things seldom work out in real life as well as they do on paper.
Therefore, when comparing odds to probability, it is always a good thing to add to the profit percentage. For instance, let's say that you are preparing to wager on a horse that your handicapping and research have shown has a 50% chance of winning. The horse will return $4.40 for the win ticket. You know that since it has a 50% chance of winning, for every $4 you invest, you're going to get your money back plus $.40. That 40 cents profit is 10% of your investment. On paper it sure seems like a good bet.
That will also mean, however, that there is no margin for error or the unknown and unexpected. Those two "uns" can really raise havoc with your plan. Therefore, a more realistic approach would be to only bet on a horse when your expected return is 20%. You may make over 10% profit, and that would be fine, but if anything unforeseen happens, you have a better chance of making that hoped for 10%. Doubling your profit margin expectations to insure that you at least hit your goal is always a good idea in anything as risky as horse racing.
If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.
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