After the race it is so much easier to find the winner and why it won than it is before the race. By looking at one hundred races and noting which horses won and why, you'd think anyone would soon be able to pick winners like a pro. Such is not the case, however, and handicapping horse races remains one of those difficult things that appears so simple at first glance.
Some horse racing handicappers try to narrow it down by using statistics. The most well known and over used statistic regarding winners at the horse races is the knowledge that the favorites win approximately one third of the races. Anyone who attends the races and tries betting on favorites as a way of making money betting on horses quickly learns, however, that it just doesn't pay. They are almost always a poor bet because so many people wager on them.
If a runner at 9-5 odds has a 33% chance of winning, then you will receive $5.60 for every $6.00 wagered on horses at those odds. Though the actual winning percentage may go up or down according to the odds, there is rarely a time when a favorite will pay enough to offset the cost of wagering. Even extremely popular favorites at odds of less than even money are often a losing bet.
So what odds and percentages and where in the betting order should we shop for winners that will pay enough to make a profit? That is a question that number crunchers and professional handicappers try to answer every day. Supposedly, a long time ago, Dutch Shultz, the infamous gangster, with the help of his accountant, figured out that certain horses were overlays and they could bet on more than one horse and still make a profit.
Though it was the golden age of horse racing wagering and odds were still crude and it was possible to find good bets based on the odds of winning. Dutch figured out that the favorite won a third of the time and the second favorite won 20% of the time. He also figured out the odds of winning for the top five horses in the odds. Horses beyond the top five won so rarely that he concentrated his efforts on those runners and watched the odds.
When he found an overlay based on the expected win percentage, he bet the horse and cleaned up. Before you rush out the door to try that how, however, be warned, it doesn't work as well any more. We no longer bet with bookies and pari-mutuel wagering has trimmed the fat from the pools making it much more difficult to win. However, the odds of each of the top five horses winning still holds true today, though it varies a little from track to track and season to season.
Roughly 80% of all winners come from the top five betting choices. As I said, it may vary a little but overall, that is where you will find most of the winners so that is probably where most of your betting should take place unless you are specifically playing long shots and have a good method of finding horses that are overlooked by the crowd.
If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.
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