We've all seen the helpful information that most past performances now supply us with regarding trainer moves. They may say something like, "Dropping in class....28% ROI +3.80." In other words, when that trainer drops his horse in class they win at a 28% clip and produce a positive return on investment of $3.80. Wonderful, it is an instant bet and all you have to do is to go wait in line in preparation to getting paid, right? Wrong.
Just flat betting horses to win that have a positive ROI according to the purveyors of past performances is a one way ticket to the poor farm. How can that be? Because that is past information and as soon as the punters see those kinds of statistics they jump on the horse like fleas on a hound. They bet the horse down below fair value odds so it becomes a losing bet.
In other words, once the cat is out of the bag it is virtually impossible to make a profit on good trainer moves. So what then is the alternative? How about bad trainer moves? How about trainer moves that have a low win percentage and a lousy ROI? Is this crazy talk? Have I been sniffing the "white out" again? No, to all of the above.
There are times when you should bet on a horse even though the trainer moves seem to indicate that it is a poor proposition. Let's face it, if all you had to do to make money betting on horses was to read the trainer stats at the bottom of the horse's lines, we'd all be rich. Horse racing handicapping is not that simple. Most of the time you will make money going against the crowd, going against conventional wisdom, and doing things that seem wrong.
When you see that a trainer has only won 5% of the time with her first time starters and she has a first time starter in the race, should you throw the horse out of your calculations? Absolutely not. If anything, the crowd will read that and they will throw it out. You want to beat them not join them. How do you beat them? By taking the road less traveled. That horse may well be a good bet after all.
It depends upon how good the other horses are. Is there a standout horse in the race? If not, then why not take a shot on a real flyer. Long shot bets are where the money is and going against the crowd is how you find them. That 5% may not be very impressive, but ask yourself this, can this trainer win with a first time starter? The answer is yes, she can and she has proven it.
Then look at the odds and ask yourself if it pays enough to take a chance. You may not win often like this, but when you do it will pay very nicely. The only way you will ever make a profit at betting on horses is by going against the crowd and avoiding those trainer moves that supposedly show a profit.
If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.
No comments:
Post a Comment