One of the most obvious indicators of a horse's true form is the speed rating it earns in a race, or so it seems at first glance. On closer examination, however, it becomes obvious that those figures must be taken in context and compared to other factors. The form cycle, though often overlooked, is still a good predictor of how a horse will run and when it will win. Modern training methods often overlook the natural physical cycles that horses undergo.
Some trainers try to win the first race a horse runs after an extended layoff. Their reasoning is that the animal is fresh and therefore will have more stamina than the other runners in the race who may be suffering from the stress of multiple efforts. This "win first race back," method works for some trainers, but perhaps in the long run, since the runner suffers so much stress without enough training for stamina and bottom, as it is called, has a bad effect in the long run and that is why so many thoroughbred horses have very short careers.
Years ago it was easier to chart a runner's form cycle by looking at three things. First of all, there was the speed rating itself. Secondly, you checked the pace of the race and how much effort the runner exerted. For instance, if a horse who wasn't known as a front runner was pushed to run on the front end in a race and wound up fading at the end and registering a poor speed figure, wise handicappers often knew that the trainer was building the horse up and would let it run its own style of race in one of its next two races. Finally, you checked the to see how soon it ran again.
The hard race on the front end would build a little tactical speed in and when allowed to run its own race next time out or second time out, the horse would score a much higher speed figure. Based on the pace of the and how quickly the conditioner brought his or her back, you'd have a good idea of whether he or she meant to win or to give the horse another race for conditioning.
One common patterns, that you will sometimes still find today, is for a horse to have a race or two to get back into shape, then a fast race where it is used hard for extra conditioning. The next race may be within ten days or so and will often just be a breezer to keep the horse sharp and stretch those muscles a bit more for tone. Finally, after that race, the horse will be sent for the win. In some cases you will even find the horse moved up in class for this race and a fine price can be had at the mutuel windows.
If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.
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