One of the most confusing factors horse racing handicappers have to deal with is when a jockey gets off one horse to ride another. What does is mean? First of all, how good is the rider who got off the mount and how good is the new one? That will tell you a lot.
Secondly, what experience has the new rider had with the horse? While we're on the subject of experience, what is the jockey trainer combo winning percentage? Yes it is tricky and that's why so many would-be horse players struggle with it.
The subject of horse racing handicapping is a complicated and risky business. There are no black and white, yes or no answers to these questions. The obvious answer, however, is often the right one. For instance, if the jockey who got off the horse has a far better win average than the new reinsman, then it is a pretty good bet that he or she has chosen a better horse and has given up on the other mount.
Winning riders get those high percentages and win riding titles at race tracks because they or their agent can spot a good mount and can also pick the better of the two when given a choice. Therefore, using the other handicapping factors of speed, class, pace, and recent form, which of the two mounts looks better, more likely to win?
If your handicapping picks the same horse the top jockey chose, then you are probably correct. Experience has taught me that when it comes to a choice between two horses, most jockeys do choose the right one. On the other hand, and here is where this all gets so tricky, you have to shop for value in your bets if you are going to make a profit betting on horses.
The rest of the horse players will also notice the switch and will probably lay off the horse that was abandoned by the better jockey. That means the odds will be higher, perhaps producing an overlay, on the horse that was left behind. Using your best handicapping skills, ask yourself what the horse should go off at and then increase it by at least 25%. Why increase your line on the horse? Because there may very well be something that the jockey knows about that horse that you don't know.
In almost all of these situations, even using your best handicapping and taking into consideration the odds offered, you will find the horse is not a good bet and should be left alone.
If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.
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