Which is the better bet, a good jockey on a bad horse or a bad jockey on a good horse? I know a lot of you are saying it doesn't sound like either one is a good bet, but there are times when either one may be a profitable bet. Of course, figuring that out is one of the keys to making money betting on horses. That is a very difficult thing to do consistently, but the only way you will ever find bets that are under valued by the crowd is to bet on a horse or jockey who appear to be a bad choice.
When you think of it, how else will you ever get value? If you only bet on horses that appear capable of winning and jockeys who appear to be better than the other riders, how will you get a good price? The answer is, you won't.
That doesn't mean you should always bet riders with low win percentages or horses that seem overmatched, however. You have to be selective and still have a reason to wager on the horse. Some reasons that might convince you to back a runner that seems over matched will start with the odds. If they are high enough, any horse may be a good bet. It comes down to the simple equation of risk and reward. If the horse could only win the race one out of 100 times it is still a good bet if it is going off at 200-1. See what I mean?
The question is, when it does win that one time out of one hundred, why does it win? This is where your reason to bet comes into play. It may be an equipment change or trainer move or it may be nothing to do with this runner and everything to do with the competition. If you think the other runners each have a chink in their armor, a weakness or cloud over them, then they are vulnerable and can be beaten.
As for betting on a good jockey on a bad horse, good riders find ways to win and bad riders find ways to lose. Admittedly, a good jockey can't carry the horse across the finish line, but he or she may get every ounce of run out of the mount and also keep it out of traffic and trouble. A favorite with a jockey that isn't very skillful and sometimes makes bad choices is vulnerable and that jockey may cost the favorite the race. That's when the longshot with the capable rider becomes a good bet as long as reward outweighs risk.
If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://horse-racing-handicapping.co/ and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.
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